Housing prices on HoCo?

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  • PJS

    Heavy
    Feb 4, 2014
    167
    Baltimore
    What is going on with the housing prices in Howard County and other counties??? It’s great if you’re selling, but if you’re buying… it’s EX PEN SIVE!

    Are the housing prices the new norm or is it going to go down? Even if this is the new norm, houses are sold very quickly. Looks like if there are new construction (single homes), it’s over a million and lot premiums. Looking at maple lawn south. It’s 1.1 million and then a 40-60k lot premium depending on where it is. That’s crazy.

    Is it a good time to buy right now? Are the housing prices gonna continue to go up? Is there a market crash or adjustments coming soon? With comparing car prices, it’s a shortage and when supplies are more available, prices could/might drop. But with homes in HoCo and other similar counties, it’s what’s there and not too many homes will be made.

    The craziest part is same new NV homes in one neighborhood is 700k vs 1.1 million. And it is separated by a ten minute drive. I m guessing the difference is the ethnicity of the neighborhood, which pretty much reflects the rating of the schools

    If anyone has any insight or advice, greatly appreciate it.

    I'm a real estate agent in the Baltimore Metro area, and would be happy to answer your, or anyone else's, questions. No obligation, always just happy to help. Shoot me a private message and I'll give you my contact info so we can talk specifics. Again, absolutely no obligation to work with me. (Maple Lawn South is a bit far for me, so I'd likely refer you to someone I know down there, anyway).

    To answer your questions: No, this isn't a new normal. Inventory is very low, it is a strong sellers' market, but at some point things will stabilize. When that will happen is hard to predict, and will vary based on the market. HoCo in general is going to stay a sellers' market for longer than say, Baltimore City.

    New construction sells at a premium anyway, so it's going to be crazy now. However, for a lot of people, it's the best option because it's an easier process when every resale is generating multiple offers.

    The difference in prices is multifaceted, but first it's location, second is location, and third is location. Then you look at the features of the houses.

    To answer the question "is it a good time to buy?" depends on your individual situation. Interest rates are only going to go up, but I think people are overpaying for houses and giving up contingencies (waiving inspections and appraisals) to a point that often outweighs the benefit of low interest rates. I honestly don't see interest rates going over 4% in the next several years. For many, many people, we are advising that if they don't have to move, stay put, or sell and rent for a year while this all sorts out. (Renting presents its own challenges because there's also a rental shortage).

    At a macro level, there is a housing shortage. I think that's going to be the case for a while.

    Again, happy to give my insight on a specific situation.
     

    pre64hunter

    Active Member
    Mar 19, 2010
    643
    Harford County
    Lumber Prices!

    It's the same in our neighborhood in Edgewood. All the vacant foreclosed houses that were sitting are sold and cleaned up, folks are living in them. Houses are on the market for only a couple days and bringing way more than the asking price.
    Lumber prices have been more crazy than ammo, up 500%! So that put a stop to building new homes and additions.
    Good news is Monday before last I was in Lowes and the lumber prices dropped by about half since that Friday.
    Everything is crazy but good ol' capitalism will level it out again as long as the government stays out of it.
     

    Mark75H

    MD Wear&Carry Instructor
    Industry Partner
    MDS Supporter
    Sep 25, 2011
    17,174
    Outside the Gates
    Canadian mills and kilns are back in operation, lumber is once again in the pipeline - unless Canada shuts down again
     

    pleasant1911

    Ultimate Member
    Apr 12, 2012
    10,230
    Thanks for the input guys!

    Might hit you up on pm, PJS. Thanks for the kind offer.

    The crazy part is on new build in maple lawn, the HoCo property tax is about $17k a year. That’s insane for taxes.
    As much as we love the house, I cannot stomach the monthly tax payments of $1400 a month. I get it’s all equivalent with pricing and many home averages in good neighborhoods and descent size homes are in the 10-12k.
    The public records of the new listed homes are crazy. 2021 assesses at 860k, on the market for 1 mil. There are homes in maple lawn that was assessed at 890k listed at 1.2 mil. Another one bought new at 1.08 listed for 1.4. I guess as stated it’s location, location, location.

    It’s nuts
     

    budman93

    Ultimate Member
    Mar 1, 2013
    5,267
    Frederick County
    I wonder how long it can last. In my searches where we are looking to buy I have started to see more inventory come in and for the first time in at least 2 years I have started getting frequent notices of price drops.

    I got emails just this morning for price drops on two houses in my search and there are only about 30 houses in the search total.


    Edit: Just got an email with the 3rd price drop of the day. Things are beginning to shift.
     

    whistlersmother

    Peace through strength
    Jan 29, 2013
    8,948
    Fulton, MD
    Given lot size of most Maple Lawn houses, that tax bill is a little high.

    I'm out the road a little with roughly the same assessment, but not quite in that tax range (14k).

    Yea, and Nevada had, what?, 100 acres at $90/yr?
     

    ctnsupra1

    Member
    Nov 22, 2008
    21
    We were in the way western part of HoCo in Woodbine/Mt Airy and were paying $10k/yr property taxes on a $750k house. We didn't have internet, no ISP would service our road, the roads themselves were not plowed so it was mostly farmers and other landowners taking turns, and our conservative representation was voted out to bring in some citiots from Columbia. That was enough for us to leave and we couldn't be happier.
     

    mtcstle

    SK, CISSP, PMP, FFL, CCW
    It’s likely, Sylvester is correct. Brush away all the window dressing and real estate agent myth. Houses are no different from eggs, butter, guns or oil. Price is a function of supply and demand. I’ll say that again. Price is a function of supply and demand. Sounds simple. It really is. What is complicated is that “Demand” is not, how badly I want it, it’s how much will the market pay for it, today. Demand seems a function of many things appearing to move up and down, in response to external factors, e.g. pandemics, interest rates, weather, and the line on some sporting event. But it is really quite simple. Everyone wants a house. The more people there are, the more houses are wanted. That’s the demand. With a fixed supply, the prices of those houses go up. This is not an increase in demand. It is due to constant demand in the face of dwindling supply. When investors recognize this, they figure out ways or places to builds more houses. This will ease the supply constraint and prices will fall. But not before the builders and investors have made a little money. Then they’ll move on to another underserved commodity, maybe eggs, butter, or guns to make some more. There you go. It’s not magic. With this ans about $30,000 you too can have a master’s degree in economics. With that, and some shoe leather you can find a job an McDonald’s or McDonell Douglas, save up, buy a house, raise a family, make some builder wealthy, and fuel the economy for another cycle. Guess what, your kid’s will have all the same challenges, believe them unique to their decade and your fault. What is old is new again. Any questions?
     

    huesmann

    n00b
    Mar 23, 2012
    1,927
    Silver Spring, MD
    Canadian mills and kilns are back in operation, lumber is once again in the pipeline - unless Canada shuts down again
    Something really bad would have to happen—Canadians are getting vaccinated at a rate much higher than we are.

    We were in the way western part of HoCo in Woodbine/Mt Airy and were paying $10k/yr property taxes on a $750k house.
    Man, people bust on MoCo for having high taxes, but it looks like HoCo blows MoCo out of the water.
     

    GutPile

    Ultimate Member
    Jul 4, 2016
    3,218
    There was an article on the front page of the Wall Street Journal a few weeks ago stating that there are more real estate agents than houses for sale in the U.S.

    shopping

    mr housing bubble was one of the best blogs out there along with housing panic during the 2006-2008 run up. Oh man so many memories. Time to do it all over again!
     

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