Kennedy retiring!!

snakep · Jun 27, 2018

Occam said:
This, right here, is Trump's single most important job when it comes to the big picture. It's why holding one's nose over his gaffes and other foibles is an EASY price to pay for keeping the constitution intact and reducing the perception, in some parts of the public, that the court is another legislature.

Man, have we been dodging bullets since Hillary said she was going to run.

I agree with you 100%.

press1280 · Jun 28, 2018

was42 said:
Just saw this "rock and a hard place" analysis on CNN's web page covering the announcement: "The timing couldn't be worse for the five Democratic senators up for re-election in states Trump won by double digits: Sens. Joe Donnelly of Indiana, Claire McCaskill of Missouri, Jon Tester of Montana, Heidi Heitkamp of North Dakota and Joe Manchin of West Virginia. If those five vote against Trump's nominee, they'll hand Republicans a potent issue to hammer them with. If they vote for the nominee, they risk severe retribution from within the Democratic Party." The pressure is on to nominate and confirm before November! There will be weeping and gnashing of liberal teeth tonight and in the coming days as the implications of this event are digested.

Really though the Dems can't stop any nominee if the GOP is solidly behind someone. So if it's a popular judge then those red state Dems will probably vote yes. Just like any other vote where Dem leadership "releases" someone to Buck the party if the vote outcome doesn't change either way.

danb · Jun 28, 2018

worth repeating, @SCOTUSBlog:

Any serious potential nominee is — barring a shocking discovery — essentially a lock to get at least 55 votes. The vote will be before the midterms. Dem Senators defending seats in states Trump won have little to gain and lots to lose in opposing, bc they can’t block the nominee.

https://twitter.com/SCOTUSblog/status/1012083361031049216

Also...

https://www.predictit.org/Market/3232/Who-will-be-Trump's-next-Supreme-Court-nominee

The problem with the FantasySCOTUS website is that you can vote multiple times. Barrett leads there. https://fantasyjustice.lexpredict.com/stats

PredictIT is also easily manipulated since the market is thin. https://www.predictit.org/Market/3232/Who-will-be-Trump's-next-Supreme-Court-nominee

Barrett is tied with Kavanaugh there.

Right now though, taking average, I'd say Barrett is the favorite to be nominated.

G O B · Jun 28, 2018

Expect a strict constructionist, expect at least 2 more in the next 5 years.
MAGA

danb · Jun 28, 2018

Amy Coney Barrett is now leading Kavanaugh on both prediction markets.

press1280 · Jun 28, 2018

I would bet against Barrett, she was just confirmed to CA7 this year.
I think Hardiman and Pryor were the other finalists last time when Gorsuch got the nod.

danb · Jun 28, 2018

press1280 said:
I would bet against Barrett, she was just confirmed to CA7 this year.
I think Hardiman and Pryor were the other finalists last time when Gorsuch got the nod.

Both prediction markets now have her in the lead.

With so many red-state esp midwestern Democrats up for re-election, Barrett is a good pick to put Dems in a real head lock. Knowing Trump, he will try to prod Dems into over reacting ("See what the Dems did to her, they are so MEAN"). Dems cannot win, 4-6 of those red state Dems will confirm any of Trumps nominees. He will press maximum advantage. If Dems were smart, they would confirm quickly and get it out of the news cycle, but they wont.

Prediction markets can sometimes be wrong and easily manipulated. Plus a lot could change. But I still would not bet against them.

press1280 · Jun 28, 2018

I think it was mentioned he'd pick a female. Don't know if that's what the markets are keying in on or not. I still want someone with a lock solid 2A history; that's Hardiman and Brett Kavanaugh. I'm not aware of any 2A opinions by Barrett.

danb · Jun 28, 2018

Barrett has virtually no opinions whatsoever. I looked up her 7th circuit opinions, there were less than 10. IDK about her law review etc articles. She was a professor of law prior, I think.

krucam · Jun 28, 2018

Supposed list of the 5 finalists...

https://www.dailywire.com/news/3241...top-ben-shapiro?amp&__twitter_impression=true

Aventus · Jun 28, 2018

Bob A · Jun 28, 2018

Please make it Hardiman. We need another Scalia, and he's pretty close.

Putting in an untried female as a sop to the Left may end badly. Court does not need another Souter. Once we get a solid 6-3, it will be soon enough to take a chance. The lady would be an excellent replacement for RBG; the sooner the better.

Mightydog · Jun 28, 2018

And they’re at it! Stating the Republicans did it in an election year. Republicans did it in a PRESIDENTIAL election year...not midterms. He still nominates regardless.

pcfixer · Jun 30, 2018

Aventus said:

NOW that is funny at 6:50 AM I need a good laugh :lol:

danb · Jul 2, 2018

Barrett now favorite

danb · Jul 3, 2018

the case for Kethledge and Kavanaugh here:

https://abovethelaw.com/2018/07/the...ate-of-play-and-the-case-for-judge-kavanaugh/
and here: https://abovethelaw.com/2018/07/ame...e-brett-kavanaugh-or-judge-raymond-kethledge/

The thinking on Barrett (per this analysis) is she is a "save for future" pick since she is young (and only has a short time on the bench), and confirmation will be difficult because of concerns around abortion views.

Hardiman did not meet with Trump Monday... but I am not sure I make anything of that since Hardiman was a finalist last time. Trump likes suspense, that would create some.

One thing I dont agree with is that Trump will shy from a confirmation fight. He will press maximum advantage and if that means culture-war apocalypse then he will bring it on. The Dem base is already motivated, so anything that fires up the GOP base for midterms will help. Attacks on Barret will for sure fire up the base.

If it were me, Hardiman would be my pick..

Omega21 · Jul 3, 2018

Amy Barrett is super easy on the eyes, but no stance on 2A has me concerned. Has she even expressed a (non legal) opinion? For me these nominations are all about the 2A.

Bob A · Jul 3, 2018

Omega21 said:
Amy Barrett is super easy on the eyes, but no stance on 2A has me concerned. Has she even expressed a (non legal) opinion? For me these nominations are all about the 2A.

That's why I'm hoping for Hardiman.

Barrett would be a good replacement for the notorious RBG.

krucam · Jul 3, 2018

Hardiman, Kavanaugh or Sykes are the ONLY Judges with pro-2A opinions and/or dissents. Barrett can wait, develop more seat time at a Circuit Court, Garner more than religious dicta and opinion. Give her 5 more years on the Circuit bench...

[/]soapbox

danb · Jul 3, 2018

We have 2 identical threads going...

danb said:
Kavanaugh back in the lead.
Latest Price: 33¢

Barrett: Latest Price: 31¢

https://www.predictit.org/Market/3232/Who-will-be-Trump's-next-Supreme-Court-nominee

Kennedy retiring!!

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