Preparing For Spreading Coronavirus

fidelity · Mar 3, 2020

MauiWowie said:
I don’t get the hysteria with this???? The FLU has already killed thousands of people and it doesn’t get any press?

In the US, flu has killed 0.056% of people infected since October 2019 to February 22, 2020 (latest reported data).

The WHO, hours ago, revised the worldwide mortality rate for SARS-CoV-2 upward to 3.4%. Most of these numbers are from January 2020 onward.

This new virus in humans spreads more easily than flu. It just hasn't spread as far as yet. It is thought that it will eventually be endemic, like flu and other human coronaviruses that cause mild colds, and infect a larger proportion of the population.

Countries are scrambling to restrict its spread so we can have the same tools in place that we have for flu (like widely available diagnostic capability, antiviral drugs, and hopefully a vaccine) that helps limit the spread of flu and the mortality. Otherwise, maybe not this spring, but in fall when respiratory infections kick up again, there will be a lot of deaths and hospitals overwhelmed with very sick individuals.

teratos · Mar 3, 2020

MauiWowie said:
I don’t get the hysteria with this???? The FLU has already killed thousands of people and it doesn’t get any press?

Not to mention the very significant morbidity.

5% of people who are diagnosed with Covid require artificial respiration. Another 15% need to breathe in highly concentrated oxygen - and not just for a few days. The duration from the beginning of the disease until recovery is 3 to 6 weeks on average for these severe and critical patients (compared to only 2 weeks for the mildly ill).

Alea Jacta Est · Mar 3, 2020

Isn’t 5.6% more than 3.4% though?

;-)

CrazySanMan · Mar 3, 2020

Nnztg8r said:
Isn’t 5.6% more than 3.4% though?

;-)

Not if you're talking antimony

MDHunter · Mar 3, 2020

Salesforce (a tech products and services company with 50,000 employees, many of whom are salespeople and account reps and spend a lot of time flying) just announced it is suspending non-essential travel for all employees; is making upcoming March customer events digital instead of in-person; and encouraging employees to stay home if they are experiencing illnesses of any kind...

Edited to add: United also waiving change fees for airline travel through the rest of March...

frogman68 · Mar 3, 2020

MDHunter said:
Salesforce (a tech products and services company with 50,000 employees, many of whom are salespeople and account reps and spend a lot of time flying) just announced it is suspending non-essential travel for all employees; is making upcoming March customer events digital instead of in-person; and encouraging employees to stay home if they are experiencing illnesses of any kind...

Edited to add: United also waiving change fees for airline travel through the rest of March...

The IMF Spring Meeting will now be “virtual” waiting to find how much joy that will bring me

Mightydog · Mar 3, 2020

MDHunter said:
Salesforce (a tech products and services company with 50,000 employees, many of whom are salespeople and account reps and spend a lot of time flying) just announced it is suspending non-essential travel for all employees; is making upcoming March customer events digital instead of in-person; and encouraging employees to stay home if they are experiencing illnesses of any kind...

Edited to add: United also waiving change fees for airline travel through the rest of March...

Wonder how many companies will continue to do more “teleconferencing” once this virus has calmed down. Will the cost savings make up for face to face lost sales?

mickeyk9 · Mar 3, 2020

I flew to Denver early Sunday morning for the American Physical Society annual Spring conference which was set to start Monday but exhibitors typically setup the day before. Landed in Denver to find out the conference was cancelled and word went out as I was in-flight. Smh.

adit · Mar 4, 2020

Monday night the Walmart in Georgetown, DE had no bleach. The Dollar Tree next door was fully stocked. 96oz for $1. 1 gal of "cleaning bleach" for $1.

Both had plenty of rice. DT had 2lb bags of white or brown for a $1. I didn't check the prices at WM.

CharlieFoxtrot · Mar 4, 2020

MauiWowie said:
I don’t get the hysteria with this???? The FLU has already killed thousands of people and it doesn’t get any press?

Now if I could do math I would’ve gone to med school but the way this non expert sees it it’s bigger deal than the seasonal flu. IIRC seasonal flu infection rate is around 3-10%. This is more infectious. Say a 20% infection rate, with a 3.4% morbidity rate then you are talking over 2.25 million deaths in US alone. Fidelity and Teratos be nice if I’m way off base. It’s early.

teratos · Mar 4, 2020

CharlieFoxtrot said:
Now if I could do math I would’ve gone to med school but the way this non expert sees it it’s bigger deal than the seasonal flu. IIRC seasonal flu infection rate is around 3-10%. This is more infectious. Say a 20% infection rate, with a 3.4% morbidity rate then you are talking over 2.25 million deaths in US alone. Fidelity and Teratos be nice if I’m way off base. It’s early.

LOL. Slight correction.

Morbidity is the rate of being diseased. In this case, 5% end up on ventilators, 20% need hospitalization/supplemental oxygen. It takes 3-6 weeks to get over it.

We are looking at a roughly 3% mortality (death) rate. Quite high when compared with influenza.

CharlieFoxtrot · Mar 4, 2020

Thanks! Stupid insomnia. I see I confused morbidity rate with mortality rate. So you’re saying 3.4% morbidity rate ( the frequency of the population that the disease appears in) and of that 3% will die (the mortality rate)?

teratos · Mar 4, 2020

CharlieFoxtrot said:
Thanks! Stupid insomnia. I see I confused morbidity rate with mortality rate. So you’re saying 3.4% morbidity rate ( the frequency of the population that the disease appears in) and of that 3% will die (the mortality rate)?

3.4% mortality rate. That was revised today.

A lot falls under morbidity:
At least 20% hospitalized
5% in ICU on ventilators.
Basically, morbidity is any illness/complication related to the disease. So just being unable to work will be a morbidity and will include a large percentage of people.

TheBert · Mar 4, 2020

Nnztg8r said:
Fellas...two words...deer cart.

I thought about keeping my eye out for guys pushing shopping carts full of stuff down the street and then taking the full cart from them. But, that just makes you a target for the next guy. It is hard to move in and out of the shadows when you are pushing a cart. And, that squeaky wheel is going to be a siren call to all of the others looking for easy pickings.

Boxcab · Mar 4, 2020

TheBert said:
I thought about keeping my eye out for guys pushing shopping carts full of stuff down the street and then taking the full cart from them. But, that just makes you a target for the next guy. It is hard to move in and out of the shadows when you are pushing a cart. And, that squeaky wheel is going to be a siren call to all of the others looking for easy pickings.

Think Ninja outfit and a can of WD-40.

.

willtill · Mar 4, 2020

I just need one more case of Spam (low sodium if I can find it) and another case of Stag Chili. I should be set.

chrisflhtc · Mar 4, 2020

I have 60 day supply of food for all family members more now that my oldest is away at school. I also have camp stoves portable propane heaters and potassium permagnate for purifying. I have 6- 7 gallon jugs and a water filter that I can pump from the stream down the road a ways it I have to. I have a well with a 1500 gallon storage tank so I think I'm good

Alan3413 · Mar 4, 2020

teratos said:
LOL. Slight correction.

Morbidity is the rate of being diseased. In this case, 5% end up on ventilators, 20% need hospitalization/supplemental oxygen. It takes 3-6 weeks to get over it.

We are looking at a roughly 3% mortality (death) rate. Quite high when compared with influenza.

3% mortality rate is comparable with the 1812 Spanish flu

Mightydog · Mar 4, 2020

teratos said:
LOL. Slight correction.

Morbidity is the rate of being diseased. In this case, 5% end up on ventilators, 20% need hospitalization/supplemental oxygen. It takes 3-6 weeks to get over it.

We are looking at a roughly 3% mortality (death) rate. Quite high when compared with influenza.

That’s worldwide correct? And if so then the rate in the USA is still quite low and still around the .02%. Correct me if I’m wrong please. I also found these interesting especially the recovery rates. The actual vs logarithmic stats.

teratos · Mar 4, 2020

Mightydog said:
That’s worldwide correct? And if so then the rate in the USA is still quite low and still around the .02%. Correct me if I’m wrong please. I also found these interesting especially the recovery rates. The actual vs logarithmic stats.

We are at 100 cases in the US with 2 deaths, so 2%.

We will see once it gets widespread.

https://www.foxnews.com/health/who-...h-rate-3-4-percent-olympics-delay-possibility

Preparing For Spreading Coronavirus

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