STOP BUYING !!

mpollan1 said:

Are there really 5 million new gun owners or 5 million background checks were performed. I honestly would be tickled evil black gun (oh shit I'm racist) color if the former. 5 million more Pro 2A sure would not hurt.

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Almost 40 million NICS checks. Which can be for more than one firearm on a single check.

Over 7 million NICS checks on people with no previous NICS check.

So likely first time buyers. Or someone who has not bought a new firearm in a long time (November 30, 1998)

Gilo said:

You can't just ask for people to stop buying. Its all about supply and demand, very simple economics. The only way to bring down pricing and increase availability is if Ammo manufacturers flood the market. otherwise it will be a long and slow process of slowly returning to normalcy.

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No, people will slow down buying. And that will bring down prices.

That is what happened the last times this occurred. At some people, people have enough, and the limit purchasing.

rbird7282 said:

I didn’t choose poorly, I’m fine with ammo. I was pointing out to the person I quoted that he’s incorrect in saying ammo manufacturers should’ve seen all of this coming before any of it even started. It’s nonsense.

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And what would they do if they had?

A new manufacturing line is many millions of dollars. For what reason? To deal with a relatively short term situation? And where was the money coming for this?

And then, you have a new line, what happens when raw materials are in short supply? You have a nice line, that cannot run without supplies.

Oh, lay in more supplies. So more money tied up, that had to come from somewhere.

People who talk like that seem to have never actually been involved at the management level of a company.

Pinecone said:

And what would they do if they had?

A new manufacturing line is many millions of dollars. For what reason? To deal with a relatively short term situation? And where was the money coming for this?

And then, you have a new line, what happens when raw materials are in short supply? You have a nice line, that cannot run without supplies.

Oh, lay in more supplies. So more money tied up, that had to come from somewhere.

People who talk like that seem to have never actually been involved at the management level of a company.

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Agreed, and they seem to not understand basic economics.


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Pinecone said:

And what would they do if they had?

A new manufacturing line is many millions of dollars. For what reason? To deal with a relatively short term situation? And where was the money coming for this?

And then, you have a new line, what happens when raw materials are in short supply? You have a nice line, that cannot run without supplies.

Oh, lay in more supplies. So more money tied up, that had to come from somewhere.

People who talk like that seem to have never actually been involved at the management level of a company.

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That said, in some industries just in time manufacturing is almost always shooting yourself in the foot at some point. Don't know if Vista and others have been offering with JIT manufacturing all along or not. But their limitations are manufacturing lines and machines, not supplies. So JIT isn't an issue for them (supposing they are even using it).

Where you see it being super stupid are auto manufacturers who seem to have that bite them on the cock every 2-4 years where they have a supplier issue and they have to grind things to a halt because they've got a few days of parts supplies on hands.

Or strategically important things (PPE as an example).

Rare Earths is getting to be an issue. China keeps throttling supplies and sending prices skyrocketing and then when countries start seriously looking at bringing mining or refining built or online they flood the market and cause prices to crash (RE are not actually rare. US has significant reserves. But refining is incredibly dirty/toxic and it is really expensive to do it in a way that doesn't destroy the environment/poison the waterways in the area.)

RE is one of those strategic things the US needs to step in with subsidies. Either that is direct, or it is indirect with things like guaranteed purchase amounts at certain rates and then turn around and sell to buyers at market rates (or lower, if China is pushing prices high, even if it means the US gov't is buying high and selling low).

That said, commercial ammo manufacturing isn't a strategic supply that the gov't should be stepping in to guarantee. They certainly buy certain amounts from some manufacturers for their own use. But they aren't stepping in and paying manufacturers to build out manufacturing lines that'll sit idle until needed. When it comes down to it, at a strategic level, if the US was in a fighting war for survival that was prolonged, small arms production can easily be converted from civilian industry (sure a ton isn't 5.56, 7.62 and 9mm and can't just be converted over. But the US Mil purchases something like 2 billion rounds a year and the civilian market is something like 10 billion rounds a year. Likely at a minimum you could double military production REALLY fast. Probably triple or quadruple it in 6 months between converting lines civilian and spinning up more Lake City production (they DO have excess capacity there that the US Gov't has paid to be there as excess capacity).

Alea Jacta Est said:

Question mark means I’m asking, not telling.

Probably not so much ammo cost/availability impact for HQL training. I dint know that’s what you did.

The courses that require 600-800 rounds per are smarting right now. ~$400/weekend trainer/site cost plus 600-800 rounds on same weekend and VOILA, most folks cannot absorb ~$1000 a pop for a couple days training.

That’s all.

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Thanks for the clarification. With the increase in HQL and the relatively low ammo costs needed for HQL, that’s where I’ve been focusing my efforts. Private lessons that could eat 100-300 rounds per person are still in high demand, but my overhead on those has risen by a ridiculous level. When I could buy 9mm for $10/box, I was able to make more money. Now, I have to apply a $25 surcharge per box used in training to maintain a reasonable level of profitability.

Stop buying ammo. Interesting thought. Does that mean I should stop shooting?

I know some people are hording what they have and not going to the range anymore but I don't want to do that. I like shooting. And it's a perishable skill. If you want to stay proficient you need to pull the trigger.

So...I thought I was OK on supply. I've still got enough to shoot at my current rate for another year. Well, two if I alternate with .22. But that makes me nervous. What happens in a year? Some people are suggesting that it will take years (plural) for prices to recover, assuming the political climate doesn't degrade to a damn scary place.

So, I try to buy one box for every two I shoot. Dollar cost averaging. Even with premium pricing it keeps it somewhat affordable. Ish. Kinda. But only because I did buy a fair amount when it was cheap. And I'm effectively doubling my supply.

So...am I going to stop buying? No. I won't stop if my wife tells me to. I'm certainly not going to stop for an internet stranger. If things don't get better in a year or perhaps two I'd be SOL if I wasn't adding in here and there now.

I strongly suspect Ammo John is going to be a busy guy when supply returns to some semblance of normal. I've only bought from him once. But I know I'm planning on replacing everything I've shot when things settle down. And then doubling it. Or tripling it. I'm going to put his kids through college.

People tend to conflate panic pricing with scarcity pricing. I suspect if the current Administration let things be (which they won’t), we would see the panic quickly subside, but not the scarcity. Then 5.56 would “only” be $0.60/rnd, not $1.20/rnd.

Despite widespread scarcity, every panic seems to have a poster child—last one was .22 and this one seems to be primers.

I'm happy to report that the pricing spike has not hit the 37mm market... those are just as butt clenchingly expensive as they always have been... but no more.

lazarus said:

That said, in some industries just in time manufacturing is almost always shooting yourself in the foot at some point. Don't know if Vista and others have been offering with JIT manufacturing all along or not. But their limitations are manufacturing lines and machines, not supplies. So JIT isn't an issue for them (supposing they are even using it).

Where you see it being super stupid are auto manufacturers who seem to have that bite them on the cock every 2-4 years where they have a supplier issue and they have to grind things to a halt because they've got a few days of parts supplies on hands.

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Even is they are running JIT on supplies, they don't have the production line capacity. And there is no reason for them to maintain that much excess capacity. That is wasted money on equipment, building space, etc.

It may not be stupid, if the costs saving over the 2 - 4 years is significantly more than the cost of shutting down for a few days.

And you don't know that the contracts are, and how much the supplier is on the hook if they cause a line shutdown.

Once congress begins debating the new gun control bills panic buying will get even worse. This isnt going away any time soon.

Mods, I know there is an ammo shortage but can't we put this thread out of it's misery?

Why? there'll just be another thread whining about something else.

dink said:

Ok people, can we have a quick refresher on capitalism...you know, SUPPLY and DEMAND?! Can we please realize that WE are our own worst enemies in this situation... There is absolutely NO reason there should be no ammo available anywhere. There is absolutely NO reason people should be paying 2, 3, 5, 10 times the normal market rate for anything. Get a friggin' grip and stop it. Yes, I know there are some folks that go through a lot of ammo playing 3 gun and clay sports..... Guess what, there are no more of those people now than there were a year ago. This is being driven by those who are scared their 500 or 1000 (or many times more) rounds aren't enough and keep buying buying buying. The noobs aren't driving this...they don't care enough to keep up with it after they've gotten a few boxes to collect dust in their drawer. Keep complaining about availability and pricing, then look in the mirror. Stop buying guns and ammo for 6 months and see what magically happens.... PLEASE STOP THE MADNESS so we won't all suffer permanent 50%-100% price increases across the board forever!. The single easiest thing we all can do to help ourselves....tell a friend. PSA rant over.

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I agree 100%! I am not paying $80 a box for .243. The only people doing this are not "new gun owners", they didn't buy a .243 or even a rifle, they bought 9mm, 45acp, and .380. This is being driven bc people with nothing better to do are going and waiting in line outside Academy Sports or whatever, buying as much as they are allowed (and bring family to do the same) then resell it on Gun Broker. The same goes with reloading components. It ridiculous. I could have bought 6 boxes of ammo the other day and didn't because....I have what I need. The people causing this are going to end up with a bunch of cheap ammo for a gun they don't have. You just wait, there is going to eventually be cheap ammo and never fired "used" firearms in the not to distant future.

2AUSA said:

I've said the same thing.

We all know the symbol on the boxes.

How many drivers are keeping tabs of homes with these types of deliveries? Quantities, GPS coordinates and even the ability of knocking on the door to see if anyone is home.

Just Sayin'.

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Interesting. I just took a shipment yesterday and it did not have this symbol on the box.

lemmdus said:

I agree 100%! I am not paying $80 a box for .243. The only people doing this are not "new gun owners", they didn't buy a .243 or even a rifle, they bought 9mm, 45acp, and .380. This is being driven bc people with nothing better to do are going and waiting in line outside Academy Sports or whatever, buying as much as they are allowed (and bring family to do the same) then resell it on Gun Broker. The same goes with reloading components. It ridiculous. I could have bought 6 boxes of ammo the other day and didn't because....I have what I need. The people causing this are going to end up with a bunch of cheap ammo for a gun they don't have. You just wait, there is going to eventually be cheap ammo and never fired "used" firearms in the not to distant future.

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Well.......... don't!

Ponder_MD said:

Interesting. I just took a shipment yesterday and it did not have this symbol on the box.

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It's been years since I bought mail order ammo. CMP always had ORM-D clearly marked on 06 ammo.

71Chevelle427 said:

Same....I'm simply choosing NOT to shoot what I already have.

Although if some "new" (or old) shooter wants to give me a buck a round for some 9mm Perfecta, I'll surely consider selling some...

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https://images.app.goo.gl/tPRkVqFL2yXwmdqh7 x 1000

Do you deliver?

If the President and the current Congress eliminate the PLCAA, ammunition manufacturers could become civilly liable for harm done by types or classes of ammunition. In addition, the President pledged to ban the online sale of ammunition. See link below. I think it not unlikely that, absent intervention by SCOTUS, you could see even bigger and longer-term problems with availability. I agree with all our free market thinkers, but when government interferes with the market, everything goes South.

https://joebiden.com/gunsafety/

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