The Carrington Effect

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  • Flametamer

    Active Member
    MDS Supporter
    Mar 6, 2014
    796
    Frederick County
    Solar storm is not the only source for a massive EM pulse that might just knock us back to the 19th century. Our enemies could do this to us in "the blink of an eye" with a high-altitude nuclear detonation. Reports that Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea have practiced firing a suitable missile from an oceangoing freighter have been floating around for years now. In 2004, the Electromagnetic Pulse Commission (created by Congress) issued a rather detailed report that makes fascinating if not terrifying reading. The report is available on the web. There has reportedly been progress in hardening critical infrastructure against this threat, but lacking a consolidated database and mandated compliance by providers of critical services, true resilience is still a long way off. Lots of interesting reads out there on the topic in the wide wide web of deceit.
     

    Mark75H

    MD Wear&Carry Instructor
    Industry Partner
    MDS Supporter
    Sep 25, 2011
    17,174
    Outside the Gates
    Long power lines and the mega transformers in huge substations that serve major metro areas ... time and time again, there are failures in the protection circuits that are supposed to open to protect this equipment in 10 and 20 year earthbound events ... the one in 250 year solar event is likely to take out much more than the oops stuff in the 10-20 year ground events. The long lines and irreplaceable transformers that have to be custom made are the problems.
     

    Crazytrain

    Certified Grump
    MDS Supporter
    Jul 8, 2007
    1,641
    Sparks, MD
    Lot's of survival fiction out there talking about this. It usually involves everything electronic failing. I'm not sure if the science is right; but this stuff does give one a chance to think about contingencies.

    I did read an article a long time ago that suggested that most vehicles (I'm not sure if that was all they tested) would probably stop running...

    ...until the key was pulled (or perhaps the battery was disconnected...stupid memory) and the computer was given a chance to reset. Then, at least in their tests, most of the cars fired back up.

    Take my faulty memory for what it's worth.

    Dependence on a national grid seems like something that is unwise. Recently Texas was minutes from losing their (independent) grid. The word is it would have been down for months. It seems so much wiser to have an independent, local source of power, either on the individual homesite or perhaps neighborhood.

    I'm thinking of setting up a non-grid connected solar system at my next home (searching now). Enough to run a few lights, a well pump, and a fridge would be OK. I doubt I'll be able to air-condition a house with it, though.

    Dependence on a national grid seems unwise. Dependence on the good will of mankind seems unwise. Dependence on a retail system dependent on Delivery On Demand seems unwise. Dependence on the government seems unwise. Independence, to the greatest extent possible, seems quite wise. My personal independence audit (ongoing) shows serious deficiencies. I'm working on it, though.
     

    Melnic

    Ultimate Member
    MDS Supporter
    Dec 27, 2012
    15,282
    HoCo
    I listen to the John Bachelor show often when driving home late at night. A guy was talking about this. Anything with a transformer in it or a coil in a switching power supply could fry as the Electromagnetic field coming from the sun would produce a surge in the coils.
    There would be NO POINT protecting things like cell phones as the towers would fry likely. There was a discussion about saving some electronics in a Faraday cage. Ham radios, 2 way walkie talkies etc. Building Faraday cages to protect your Generators etc.

    Learn about how a basic step up or step down transformer works. (I"m an Electrical Engineer so we learn this stuff in College physics if any of us payed attention). Its basically like the primary side of the transformer gets induced by the sun's EMF and then feeds both the primary and secondary in a much higher pulse the the point of frying both ends.
    Electromagnetic fields are involved in everything from transformers to radio waves. Those con tactless chargers for the iphone that you put on your night stand to charge it w/o contact, YUP, Electromagnetic Fields doing that transferring power.

    Some reading:
    https://www.amazon.com/Electromagne...nerabilities-Telecommunications/dp/1422050572
     

    Melnic

    Ultimate Member
    MDS Supporter
    Dec 27, 2012
    15,282
    HoCo
    What is missing from the original post is that we are entering a cycle of increased solar activity.

    Are you talking about that 11-13 year cycle or a larger 100+ year cycle?

    Saw this movie last weekend:
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Knowing_(film)

    The next day, Abby colors in the sun on the engraving, which gives John a revelation. He rushes to the MIT observatory and learns that a massive solar flare with the potential to destroy all life will hit the Earth on the last date indicated by the message. As Diana and Abby prepare to take refuge underground, John goes to the school and finds the door on which Lucinda engraved the final numbers, and identifies them as coordinates of a place where he believes that salvation from the solar flare can be found. The disbelieving and hysterical Diana loads both Caleb and Abby into her car and flees for the caves.

    The beings, who act as extraterrestrial angels, are leading children to safety on interstellar arks
     

    daggo66

    Ultimate Member
    Mar 31, 2013
    1,992
    Glen Burnie
    Are you talking about that 11-13 year cycle or a larger 100+ year cycle?

    Saw this movie last weekend:
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Knowing_(film)

    The beginning of the smaller cycle, but we are well overdo for the larger. The biggest problem is being hit with several CME’s. The Earth’s magnetic field gets distorted from a single event. Multiple events allow the effects to penetrate and do damage.
     

    Roksfr

    Ardent Safety Training
    Industry Partner
    MDS Supporter
    Oct 14, 2020
    349
    Southern AA
    Bummer, I saw "Carrington effect" and I was hoping to see figure skaters
    imgres
     

    Mark75H

    MD Wear&Carry Instructor
    Industry Partner
    MDS Supporter
    Sep 25, 2011
    17,174
    Outside the Gates
    Yes, we are on the upswing on the 11 year cycle after a VERY flat low period. Nothing to indicate a coming Carrington event, just improved long range high frequency (short wave) contacts compared to the really sucky part of the cycle
     

    dblas

    Past President, MSI
    MDS Supporter
    Apr 6, 2011
    13,087
    What is missing from the original post is that we are entering a cycle of increased solar activity.

    Nothing new, we are entering solar cycle 25, and it will likely peak in 2022. Nothing new, and nothing to really worry about, and if you are an amateur radio operator, time to get out the 10m and 6m gear and check it to make sure it works.
     

    Mark75H

    MD Wear&Carry Instructor
    Industry Partner
    MDS Supporter
    Sep 25, 2011
    17,174
    Outside the Gates
    Nothing new, we are entering solar cycle 25, and it will likely peak in 2022. Nothing new, and nothing to really worry about, and if you are an amateur radio operator, time to get out the 10m and 6m gear and check it to make sure it works.

    2022 is just the beginning of the good part, actual peak July 2025 +/- 8 months
     

    Docster

    Ultimate Member
    Jul 19, 2010
    9,768
    It was the Carrington Event, named after the scientist that first described it.
    Earth has come very close to another such event several times
     

    Slowhand

    Pre-Banned
    Dec 13, 2011
    1,869
    In a van, down by the river.
    An interesting read is "48 Hours", written by William Forstchen who wrote "One Second After", "One Year After", and "The Final Day" about EMP.
    https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B07CGBNZK3

    "In 48 hours, the Earth will be hit by a Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) from the Sun, a "Carrington Event" that has the power to shut down and possibly destroy the world's electrical infrastructure. To try and prevent permanent damage, everything goes dark prior to the hit: global communications are shut down; hospital emergency generators are disconnected; the entire internet, media broadcasting, and cell phone systems are turned off.

    Will the world's population successfully defend itself in the wake of the CME, or will mass panic lead to the breakdown of society as we know it?"
     

    Growler215

    Ultimate Member
    Dec 30, 2020
    2,170
    SOMD
    I think my gun safe will be be an adequate Faraday cage to protect my red dot sights.

    And they all have the little solar panels on top, so not totally dependent on batteries.
     

    lazarus

    Ultimate Member
    Jun 23, 2015
    13,678
    So this is a good point; I would like to know what small devices were effected in the 1980 solar flare. And the answer may be damn few if any. Doe the calculus change if the solar flare is much bigger, like the one in 1859?

    None. You need conductive path lengths on the order of miles long to generate significant voltages. And generally the voltages sufficient to carry over a transformer, won’t. It’ll saturate the core. Which is also part of how it causes damage.

    So you possibly wouldn’t even damage anything actively plugged in to the mains. Internally to your house if you were disconnected from the mains by opening your main breaker you’d likely only see single digit voltages being induced in your wiring. A vehicle probably wouldn’t even see 1-2v induced in its wiring.

    This is all for something the scale of the Carrington event.

    Mostly the damage is going to be caused by the thousands of transformers damaged or destroyed. When your factory doesn’t have power, how do you make new ones? Likely you wouldn’t destroy the entire grid, but you would do significant damage to a lot of it in a “no prior intervention” scenario.

    Likely taking months to even a few years to replace all of the damaged gear. But small stuff is fine. You need faraday cages and stuff like that for EMP. Which a solar flare is not. It is induced current from slowly oscillating, extremely power changes in magnetic field.

    An EMP is basically extremely high energy radio and microwaves. Different principles of creating current in conductors.
     

    FPL53

    Ultimate Member
    Aug 4, 2013
    2,693
    Frederick
    Yeah, there was an event in 1989

    I think it was 1988 and Quebec went dark for 3+ days. I remember seeing the bright red northern lights over parts of Rockville and Potomac 2 of those nights. Just think how much was computerized then, and then think of today's technology.

    Yesterday, there was an earth facing M flare with predictions of the same AR spot group to unleash at least one or two X flares within the next couple of days.

    I think it was 2004 there was an X20 flare that was unleashed but it was not an earth facing event. This flare was so strong some solar physicists relooked at the data and said they believe it was more on the order of X40. I heard some mutterings of a Z1. If that one was earth facing it would have knocked our dicks to the dirt for a short time.
     

    fred2207

    Banned
    BANNED!!!
    Mar 14, 2013
    3,179
    PG
    So this is a good point; I would like to know what small devices were effected in the 1980 solar flare. And the answer may be damn few if any. Doe the calculus change if the solar flare is much bigger, like the one in 1859?




    My boom-box was in the static mode for a time...:D
     
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