With Russian Ammo Ban - prices etc.

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  • canonian

    Active Member
    Jan 5, 2013
    223
    Elkridge
    I've been watching prices and they have not risen nearly as much as I thought they would.

    Is there more to this ban, loop holes to get around it? Are they grandfathering people who have valid import licenses until they expire?

    I need to make a decision on purchasing more 7.62 and 5.45 or just keep what I have and never shoot the AKs till this is over.

    Any thoughts?
     

    Bob A

    όυ φροντισ
    MDS Supporter
    Patriot Picket
    Nov 11, 2009
    30,691
    Someone noted elsewhere that existing contracts are not affected. Some of them extend forward by about two years.

    When the deadline approaches, a lot will depend on whether other channels have stepped up. I'd be most concerned about 5.45x39.
     

    Sirex

    Powered by natural gas
    Oct 30, 2010
    10,380
    Westminster, MD
    I just bought a little Barnaul .223 soft points while I could. Barnaul seems like it's a harder Russian brand name to get even when times are better, not counting the Bear triplets. I'll probably try to get more 7.62x39 a bit later on when the well replenishes.
     

    Rocinante

    Active Member
    Jul 19, 2018
    182
    Eastern Shore
    7.62x39 has a large brass market that is unaffected by the Russian ammo ban. PPU in Serbia, Mesko in Poland, S&B in Czechia, Fiocchi in both US and Italy, and PMC in South Korea, all manufacture and have current import contracts. Not to mention Federal, Winchester, and Hornady still make 7.62x39 domestically.
    5.45x39 is the problem child. Currently, there are only two manufacturers on the US market: Russia (Vympel, Barnaul, Tula, etc) and Hornady. Hornady is not capable of supplying even a fraction of the US market with enough 5.45x39 without drastically expanding their current production line. Through word of mouth, the only other places that are willing and capable of manufacturing 5.45x39 in bulk as of right now are Khazakstan, Ukraine, and Romania. Poland and Bulgaria previously manufactured but have no interest in the caliber and are refusing offers to manufacture (Poland actually despises it and officially switched back to 7.62x39). To my knowledge there have been no attempts as of yet to get an import deal with the Khazakstan or Ukraine plants. Romania on the other hand is willing to manufacture 5.45x39 AND WASR-2s to go along, but the catch is Romarm (Romanian state-owned arsenal) wants a massive, long-term contract and is not willing to do small batches- something most US importers are unwilling to do.
    For the time being 5.45x39 is safe for about two more years when Wolf and Century's contracts end. After that, unless someone else gets on to the market, the caliber will be about as popular as 7.5x55.
     

    erwos

    The Hebrew Hammer
    MDS Supporter
    Mar 25, 2009
    13,866
    Rockville, MD
    The Ukranians don't have any real 5.45 supply anymore. The Lugansk plant is on the wrong side of the civil war / Russian invasion border and their attempts to set up a new plant didn't work out very well. I've heard various claims about the degree to which the Lugansk factory is still operating, but it's not going to be available to us.

    Kazakhstan is a possibility, though. Still unsure how Russian ammo imports were ever approved with 27 CFR § 447.52 on the books, but if the Kazakhs can get in under the same thing, I guess they're in the game. One problem is that the Russians apparently export a LOT of the primers used by these guys to make their ammo. I saw a source that claimed Lugansk was using Russian primers exclusively before things went nuts over there. So it is possible that the Kazakhs may have problems in that area, too. I suspect import restrictions would be in play if a major ammo component was Russian in origin.

    Personally speaking, I'll buy another case or two of 5.45x39 commercial when the price settles back down (and it will, in like six months), and use that and my remaining four tins of 7N6 to burn the barrel out on my -74... after that, screw it, I'll sell it for whatever it sells for if there's no Romanian imports by that point.

    The Poles use 5.56 now. There's probably some residual 7.62x39 production for reserve units with really old rifles, but I doubt they're trying to focus on it.
     

    F-Stop

    Ultimate Member
    Feb 16, 2009
    2,484
    Cecil County
    I was shocked to see what people were asking for 7n6 crates on GB. I have one SGL and couple crates left. I will probably do the same, shoot it and not worry. Maybe I can sell some plum mags in 20 years to recoup cost. Lol! It’s very tempting to sell with the crazy prices though.

    Are the machines the same for brass and steel? Just curious if the machinery and dies are same.


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
     

    erwos

    The Hebrew Hammer
    MDS Supporter
    Mar 25, 2009
    13,866
    Rockville, MD
    Are the machines the same for brass and steel? Just curious if the machinery and dies are same.
    Not sure. Personal opinion, we're more likely to see hybrid-polymer-cased ammo become the new cheap hotness in the future than domestic production of steel-cased ammo. True Velocity has proven that the technology works and can be mass-produced, now it just needs someone to go all in and scale it to get the cost per round down further.
     

    Ponder_MD

    Ultimate Member
    Mar 9, 2020
    4,565
    Maryland
    7.62x54R on ammoseek seems unaffected...for now. I guess this means no PPU for my Garand once the contracts run out?
     

    Melnic

    Ultimate Member
    MDS Supporter
    Dec 27, 2012
    15,282
    HoCo
    But I would think that the steel 7.62x39 is a large % of what is sold and that eventually eliminating that during an already ammo scare would stress the supply. Even if you remove say 20% of supply, that will make a significant jump in price if demand stays high.

    I know this, I eyeball anything that looks the size of 7.62x39 brass on the ground and in 8 years of being a member of AGC, I've only seen it once. Maybe everyone keeps their cases of 7.62x39 when its brass.

    7.62x39 has a large brass market that is unaffected by the Russian ammo ban. PPU in Serbia, Mesko in Poland, S&B in Czechia, Fiocchi in both US and Italy, and PMC in South Korea, all manufacture and have current import contracts. Not to mention Federal, Winchester, and Hornady still make 7.62x39 domestically.
    5.45x39 is the problem child. Currently, there are only two manufacturers on the US market: Russia (Vympel, Barnaul, Tula, etc) and Hornady. Hornady is not capable of supplying even a fraction of the US market with enough 5.45x39 without drastically expanding their current production line. Through word of mouth, the only other places that are willing and capable of manufacturing 5.45x39 in bulk as of right now are Khazakstan, Ukraine, and Romania. Poland and Bulgaria previously manufactured but have no interest in the caliber and are refusing offers to manufacture (Poland actually despises it and officially switched back to 7.62x39). To my knowledge there have been no attempts as of yet to get an import deal with the Khazakstan or Ukraine plants. Romania on the other hand is willing to manufacture 5.45x39 AND WASR-2s to go along, but the catch is Romarm (Romanian state-owned arsenal) wants a massive, long-term contract and is not willing to do small batches- something most US importers are unwilling to do.
    For the time being 5.45x39 is safe for about two more years when Wolf and Century's contracts end. After that, unless someone else gets on to the market, the caliber will be about as popular as 7.5x55.
     

    lazarus

    Ultimate Member
    Jun 23, 2015
    13,680
    Someone noted elsewhere that existing contracts are not affected. Some of them extend forward by about two years.

    When the deadline approaches, a lot will depend on whether other channels have stepped up. I'd be most concerned about 5.45x39.

    Well and what the ref of the market looks like. If US or foreign manufacturers have stepped up manufacture of 7.62x39. I’ve heard varying amounts on Russia being responsible for as much as 20% of US market ammo sales down to more like 3-5%. The little I am aware of, I am pretty sure it is more like the later. It isn’t a drop in the bucket, but it isn’t a massive portion.

    That said, for steel cased ammo, it probably is 30-90% depending on the caliber. Some like 5.45x39 Russia is the primary supplier by a huge amount. For something like 7.62x39 they are probably 50-60%. There are a few other makers. Romania, Ukraine. A couple of others. I’d half imagine some of them will step up output of Russia is out of the game.

    But as some have mentioned, existing contracts are good and most are for deliveries over months if not a couple of years. It’ll take months before supply is actually constrained at all. So the fact prices went up 60-80% is as much about panic buying as well as suppliers gouging. I’ll give suppliers some limited credit, if they can’t get ammo to sell, they are out of business. Or their business is hurt if it is some of their supply that dries up months from now.

    But I do think the market will respond and cover some of Russia dropping out. Bad timing though.
     

    Ammo Jon

    Ultimate Member
    Mar 3, 2008
    20,789
    But I would think that the steel 7.62x39 is a large % of what is sold and that eventually eliminating that during an already ammo scare would stress the supply. Even if you remove say 20% of supply, that will make a significant jump in price if demand stays high.

    I know this, I eyeball anything that looks the size of 7.62x39 brass on the ground and in 8 years of being a member of AGC, I've only seen it once. Maybe everyone keeps their cases of 7.62x39 when its brass.

    7.62 brass isn’t the most popular round, whereas steel could be found dirt cheap brass was always 3x more expensive. Hence not seeing it around. I’ve moved a lot of ammo, I can count on 1 hand how many cases of 7.62 brass I’ve moved.
     

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