When was ammo cheapest?

Ammo Jon · Nov 8, 2021

Pinecone said:
Hmm, 100% profit in 2 years.

What other investments do that well?

I understand the hesitation, a lot of people are hoping prices drop and they made the right decision to wait until it’s .18 cpr vs .38 cpr. Personally I think we’ve hit about as rock bottom as we’re going to get while there’s a Democrat in office. The risk of waiting is prices go the other way and the same people that balked at American Eagle 9mm at $250 would be lucky to find it for less than $400 nowadays.

OMCHamlin · Nov 8, 2021

The cheapest "decent" ammo I recall in the near term was several years ago (maybe 2016'ish?) when Walmart was whoring out that Perfecta (green & tan box) line of basic FMJ ammo;
(roughly)
9mm 115 fmj - 6.96
7.62x51 147 fmj - 9.96
380acp - 8.96
5.56 55gr fmj, 50 ct - 10.96?
.38 & .357, 10 or 12.96 or so.
That was an epic time, I would get up in time to go hit the Onley, Va, Pocomoke and Fruitland Walmart's before work. No limits, I bought by the case, still using much of it, it was fine ammo in my guns.

MaxVO2 · Nov 8, 2021

Pinecone said:
Hmm, 100% profit in 2 years.

What other investments do that well?

*****These past few years since mebbe 2016? Quite a few equities including several ETF’s, plenty of stocks in good companies - some of which also pay dividends, etc…. Amazon, Ford, Nvidia, Target, Walmart, Factset Research, Tesla, and several others in a variety of industries have returned at least 50% per year depending upon original cost basis.

I have ammo too, but do not really consider it an investment per se. Storage, and not being able to really sell it as easily as other things like equities are two reasons. I can much more easily sell say $1000 worth of stock in whatever versus posting an ad on MDS to sell ammo, and have to deal with shipping or meeting someone, etc.. The money transfer is instantaneous with equities once sold and if it’s in a tax privileged account you don’t need to deal with capital gains, etc.. There’s lots of folks that have become millionaires investing in stocks with a diversified portfolio etc.. Probably not that many have done so buying and selling ammo unless that’s their business. Lots of investments are out there for sure, and buying and selling ammo can be very profitable but for the average person, even a gun owner, equities are much easier to buy and sell and make money IMO

erwos · Nov 8, 2021

It's not an investment if you're not going to sell it, folks. I don't kid myself about my M11/9; that thing isn't ever getting sold unless my life becomes dire enough I've sold a bunch of other stuff already. Ditto for ammo. I'm not buying ammo just to sell it.

I'd also add that people suck at understanding market cycles; the same crowd telling us that housing was gonna be high forever got murdered in the housing crash of 2009. Ammo prices will drop without further supply/demand shocks.

smokey · Nov 8, 2021

erwos said:
It's not an investment if you're not going to sell it, folks. I don't kid myself about my M11/9; that thing isn't ever getting sold unless my life becomes dire enough I've sold a bunch of other stuff already. Ditto for ammo. I'm not buying ammo just to sell it.

I'd also add that people suck at understanding market cycles; the same crowd telling us that housing was gonna be high forever got murdered in the housing crash of 2009. Ammo prices will drop without further supply/demand shocks.

https://gundigest.com/article/psa-tooling-up-for-domestic-steel-cased-ammo-production
There is also this kind of news. There are a LOT of new ammo companies thriving right now. If you can push ammo into the market, it has been bought at high prices. This means new companies have the demand to upcharge and make up for initial investment in manufacturing tooling fairly quicker than they otherwise could. In my mind-brain, this means there is less ability for big-brand ammo companies to squish little ones out of business through large-scale efficiency. I'm beginning to see big-brand ammo actually on the shelves at places like basspro though. This would suggest market forces are again at work to begin capping the price for popular cartridges and start competition back up.

So, I guess we'll see if this results in a crash of ammo prices, as big names are able to outcompete little ones again or not. At least for steel cased things, PSA has until 2024 to get rolling before (hopefully) conservatives open russian ammo back up.

JohnC · Nov 8, 2021

smokey0118 said:
https://gundigest.com/article/psa-tooling-up-for-domestic-steel-cased-ammo-production
There is also this kind of news. There are a LOT of new ammo companies thriving right now. If you can push ammo into the market, it has been bought at high prices. This means new companies have the demand to upcharge and make up for initial investment in manufacturing tooling fairly quicker than they otherwise could. In my mind-brain, this means there is less ability for big-brand ammo companies to squish little ones out of business through large-scale efficiency. I'm beginning to see big-brand ammo actually on the shelves at places like basspro though. This would suggest market forces are again at work to begin capping the price for popular cartridges and start competition back up.

So, I guess we'll see if this results in a crash of ammo prices, as big names are able to outcompete little ones again or not. At least for steel cased things, PSA has until 2024 to get rolling before (hopefully) conservatives open russian ammo back up.

I was wondering if domestic manufacturers would just tool up brass 7.62x39/5.45/7.62x54r, because there would be a massive market once Russian steel cased is no longer available

Biggfoot44 · Nov 8, 2021

For those with short attention spans , 2018- 2018 wasn't bad .

For those with really , really long attention spans , a few years on either side of Y2K probably all time low , adjusted for inflation .

As AJ alluded , with increased prices of raw materials , cutoff of Commie Ammo , and still somewhat shaky state of public order , with anti gun Dems in power ; Expect only gradual incremental price correction, until the Next Crisis shoots prices up again .

At this point in time , it's not critical to maximize savings / investment basis . What's important is to have a sufficieny on hand Before the next era of non existent supply and high prices .

Docster · Nov 8, 2021

NebTim said:
Was it 2 years ago?

5 years ago?

What year was the best year to buy ammo?

When was it cheapest? Silly/stupid question without parameters or context. In 1968 gas was about 29¢/ gal. Does that help?

Ammo Jon · Nov 8, 2021

Docster said:
When was it cheapest? Silly/stupid question without parameters or context. In 1968 gas was about 29¢/ gal. Does that help?

Do you remember how much it was in 29?

Pinecone · Nov 8, 2021

MaxVO2 said:
*****These past few years since mebbe 2016? Quite a few equities including several ETF’s, plenty of stocks in good companies - some of which also pay dividends, etc…. Amazon, Ford, Nvidia, Target, Walmart, Factset Research, Tesla, and several others in a variety of industries have returned at least 50% per year depending upon original cost basis.

I have ammo too, but do not really consider it an investment per se. Storage, and not being able to really sell it as easily as other things like equities are two reasons. I can much more easily sell say $1000 worth of stock in whatever versus posting an ad on MDS to sell ammo, and have to deal with shipping or meeting someone, etc.. The money transfer is instantaneous with equities once sold and if it’s in a tax privileged account you don’t need to deal with capital gains, etc.. There’s lots of folks that have become millionaires investing in stocks with a diversified portfolio etc.. Probably not that many have done so buying and selling ammo unless that’s their business. Lots of investments are out there for sure, and buying and selling ammo can be very profitable but for the average person, even a gun owner, equities are much easier to buy and sell and make money IMO

Except how many stocks went down?

How do you pick the right ones?

Ammo will always have value.

And in SHTF, you can trade ammo for things. Try to trade your Tesla stock then.

Biggfoot44 · Nov 8, 2021

Since you asked , 1929 gas prices were about 0.21/ gal . Adjusted for inflation that's equivalent to about $2.85 today .

Dropped to 0.17- 0.18 in depths of Great Depression .

Adjusted for inflation , 1998 gas prices were particularly low .

adit · Nov 8, 2021

Biggfoot44 said:
Since you asked , 1929 gas prices were about 0.21/ gal . Adjusted for inflation that's equivalent to about $2.85 today .

Dropped to 0.17- 0.18 in depths of Great Depression .

Adjusted for inflation , 1998 gas prices were particularly low .

Those 1929 numbers don't reflect the efficiencies gained since then in the production of crude/distillates.

erwos · Nov 8, 2021

smokey0118 said:
https://gundigest.com/article/psa-tooling-up-for-domestic-steel-cased-ammo-production
There is also this kind of news. There are a LOT of new ammo companies thriving right now. If you can push ammo into the market, it has been bought at high prices. This means new companies have the demand to upcharge and make up for initial investment in manufacturing tooling fairly quicker than they otherwise could. In my mind-brain, this means there is less ability for big-brand ammo companies to squish little ones out of business through large-scale efficiency. I'm beginning to see big-brand ammo actually on the shelves at places like basspro though. This would suggest market forces are again at work to begin capping the price for popular cartridges and start competition back up.

Sig and one other manufacturer (probably Hornady) are both rumored to be standing up primer manufacturing operations.

Ammo has been broadly available since the summer at retail. Prices will fall as the ammo stays on the shelves.

ETA: the Sig thing was confirmed: https://www.arkansasonline.com/news/2021/jun/20/jacksonville-ammo-plant-to-grow/

Hornady not so much, but there are not a lot of other candidates besides maybe PSA.

Ammo Jon · Nov 8, 2021

I’m noticing an uptick in demand since the summer. I think as people shift back into the shooting sports we will see if supply can meet demand.

Biggfoot44 · Nov 8, 2021

0 .21/ gal was actual cost of gas in 1921 , not an inflation factor translation

Pinecone · Nov 9, 2021

adit said:
Those 1929 numbers don't reflect the efficiencies gained since then in the production of crude/distillates.

Huh.

That was the RETAIL price.

Yes, this is driven by the costs.

The point is, the cost of gas last year was about the same as 1929 adjusted for inflation/

Thwack22 · Nov 10, 2021

Using the current market rates as a gauge it's hard to anticpate prices going down but. It's like the stock market - when prices go up you wish you had invested earlier. Happens every cycle. Hopefully production will catch up with demand....

CWO · Nov 10, 2021

2002: I remember the Bass Pro Shops sales on Winchester Q3131A .223. 11 cents per round.

At 2,000 rounds, the shopping cart didn't want to go in a straight line. I made more than one trip. I still have some left...

Ammo Jon · Nov 10, 2021

I think the other issue is that buying 1k of ammo is “easy” online. When a range is going through 100x as much they aren’t getting their ammo from SGAmmo.com

There is still more demand than supply for larger quantities, stores, FFL, law enforcement, etc. when those needs are met and there is still ammo left online than I’ll believe “this” is over.

FHJ69 · Nov 10, 2021

Ammo Jon said:
I think the other issue is that buying 1k of ammo is “easy” online. When a range is going through 100x as much they aren’t getting their ammo from SGAmmo.com

There is still more demand than supply for larger quantities, stores, FFL, law enforcement, etc. when those needs are met and there is still ammo left online than I’ll believe “this” is over.

Hi Jon, Do you have the ability to purchase directly from the manufacturer and also import from overseas manufacturers? If this is out of line please say so. If not more to follow.

Thanks,
Frank

When was ammo cheapest?

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