This was just sent out by Sam at SGAmmo "There has been a lot of people asking me about the sanctions on Russian ammo imports put in place by the US state department this past week and what it means for the future of ammunition supplies. There will be more clarity in several weeks when we can see the publication of a Federal Register notice expected on September 7, 2021. The state department announcement can be seen at this page - https://www.state.gov/fact-sheet-un...-russia-for-the-poisoning-of-aleksey-navalny/
My Russian Ammo Sanction Opinion - First, I hope you don't 'shoot the messenger' and I'd like to pat everyone on the back and tell them things are going to be okay but that wouldn't be truthful. In my opinion the sanctions are a major game-changer in the ammunition supply chain that is already strained. For the time being and based on what we can see so far, we believe that this will be the effective end of Russian made ammo in the USA as it plays out over the next year or so as import permits expire or are filled to the quantity limits, and in doing so eliminate supply of a huge portion of the ammo in the US commercial market. From what I understand, the USA commercial market consumes around 800,000,000 rounds of ammunition from Russia every year, roughly 800 semi truck trailers worth in a mix of the most popular calibers. For the immediate short term we expect ammo to keep coming in from Russia but I expect the importers to raise prices substantially which is understandable to me given its the end of the lifespan for their business model. The calibers we believe will be most effected are soviet metric calibers like 7.62x39, 5.45x39, and 7.62x54R because there is almost zero available manufacturing capacity for these calibers outside of Russia and what little exists will not make a significant impact in filling the needs of the USA commercial market without Russian ammo absorbing the lion's share. In addition to these calibers, I estimate that the Russians supplied 30% to 40% of the 223 Rem / 5.56 and 9mm Luger consumed at the shooting ranges across this country, and large portions of the 45 auto, 9x18 Makarov, 30 carbine, 308 Winchester / 762x51, 380 Auto, 300 Blackout and 6.5 Grendel. I see this as a potentially devastating blow to the supply for of 223 Rem / 5.56 and 9mm Luger, where the reduction in supply from Russia will be difficult to make up in the short term for other manufacturers who have already been unable to keep up with demand this past year. Consumers who have used Russian ammo regularly will have to move on from Russian made ammo to those other products made elsewhere and in doing so absorb the supply and prolong recent shortages. Again this is my opinion, based on my knowledge of the industry after 20+ years experience, and how things play out over time could be different. For me, selling Russian made ammo is about 40% of my business, and while we plan to source as much supply as we can from other sources, we do expect this to have a major negative impact on supply for 7.62x39, 7.62x54R, 5.45x39, 9mm Makarov, 9mm Luger, 223 Rem / 5.56 NATO, as well as the other mentioned calibers."
If right, that’s hurt. But also wrong. 800 millions rounds is a lot. But US manufacturers PRIOR to 2020 were producing ~8.1 billion rounds per year. Sure, some were exports or for the military. But the majority was for US domestic civilian consumption. This doesn’t include the import from other sources.
So if true, that means Russian imports, if 800 million rounds, actually represents no more than 10% of the total market. Likely more in the 6-7% range when accounting for other importers.
Sure, a higher portion of some calibers.
Sam seems like a nice guy. But if you read his emails, it is a CONSTANT alarmist sales push by him. Has been for years and years. Buy now because prices are only going to go up and I predict soon! Lately it’s been 19 months of the highest demand ever and it’ll just get worse. Month before it was 18 months of the highest demand ever and it’ll only get worse. Rinse and repeat.
If you say something long enough, odds are good you’ll be proven right. But the boy still gets ignored and eaten by the wolf…
That said, the exist permits are good for up to 2 years. Right now it’s a mass run on ammo (yet again!). Scarcity is only because people bought all they could literally overnight. Supply itself won’t be constrained in any way for a couple of years.
Yes I am against this decision and it sucks. But it is only sky falling NOW, because probably 10,000 guys ran out and tried to buy 5 cases on whatever they could find in 24hrs. Sellers saw a mark coming. Buyers are going to keep hounding every last case, because it might be the last one. Or it’ll only go up in price.