Biden does it again! State Dept. Bans Russian Guns and Ammo

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  • lazarus

    Ultimate Member
    Jun 23, 2015
    13,681
    This was just sent out by Sam at SGAmmo "There has been a lot of people asking me about the sanctions on Russian ammo imports put in place by the US state department this past week and what it means for the future of ammunition supplies. There will be more clarity in several weeks when we can see the publication of a Federal Register notice expected on September 7, 2021. The state department announcement can be seen at this page - https://www.state.gov/fact-sheet-un...-russia-for-the-poisoning-of-aleksey-navalny/

    My Russian Ammo Sanction Opinion - First, I hope you don't 'shoot the messenger' and I'd like to pat everyone on the back and tell them things are going to be okay but that wouldn't be truthful. In my opinion the sanctions are a major game-changer in the ammunition supply chain that is already strained. For the time being and based on what we can see so far, we believe that this will be the effective end of Russian made ammo in the USA as it plays out over the next year or so as import permits expire or are filled to the quantity limits, and in doing so eliminate supply of a huge portion of the ammo in the US commercial market. From what I understand, the USA commercial market consumes around 800,000,000 rounds of ammunition from Russia every year, roughly 800 semi truck trailers worth in a mix of the most popular calibers. For the immediate short term we expect ammo to keep coming in from Russia but I expect the importers to raise prices substantially which is understandable to me given its the end of the lifespan for their business model. The calibers we believe will be most effected are soviet metric calibers like 7.62x39, 5.45x39, and 7.62x54R because there is almost zero available manufacturing capacity for these calibers outside of Russia and what little exists will not make a significant impact in filling the needs of the USA commercial market without Russian ammo absorbing the lion's share. In addition to these calibers, I estimate that the Russians supplied 30% to 40% of the 223 Rem / 5.56 and 9mm Luger consumed at the shooting ranges across this country, and large portions of the 45 auto, 9x18 Makarov, 30 carbine, 308 Winchester / 762x51, 380 Auto, 300 Blackout and 6.5 Grendel. I see this as a potentially devastating blow to the supply for of 223 Rem / 5.56 and 9mm Luger, where the reduction in supply from Russia will be difficult to make up in the short term for other manufacturers who have already been unable to keep up with demand this past year. Consumers who have used Russian ammo regularly will have to move on from Russian made ammo to those other products made elsewhere and in doing so absorb the supply and prolong recent shortages. Again this is my opinion, based on my knowledge of the industry after 20+ years experience, and how things play out over time could be different. For me, selling Russian made ammo is about 40% of my business, and while we plan to source as much supply as we can from other sources, we do expect this to have a major negative impact on supply for 7.62x39, 7.62x54R, 5.45x39, 9mm Makarov, 9mm Luger, 223 Rem / 5.56 NATO, as well as the other mentioned calibers."

    If right, that’s hurt. But also wrong. 800 millions rounds is a lot. But US manufacturers PRIOR to 2020 were producing ~8.1 billion rounds per year. Sure, some were exports or for the military. But the majority was for US domestic civilian consumption. This doesn’t include the import from other sources.

    So if true, that means Russian imports, if 800 million rounds, actually represents no more than 10% of the total market. Likely more in the 6-7% range when accounting for other importers.

    Sure, a higher portion of some calibers.

    Sam seems like a nice guy. But if you read his emails, it is a CONSTANT alarmist sales push by him. Has been for years and years. Buy now because prices are only going to go up and I predict soon! Lately it’s been 19 months of the highest demand ever and it’ll just get worse. Month before it was 18 months of the highest demand ever and it’ll only get worse. Rinse and repeat.

    If you say something long enough, odds are good you’ll be proven right. But the boy still gets ignored and eaten by the wolf…

    That said, the exist permits are good for up to 2 years. Right now it’s a mass run on ammo (yet again!). Scarcity is only because people bought all they could literally overnight. Supply itself won’t be constrained in any way for a couple of years.

    Yes I am against this decision and it sucks. But it is only sky falling NOW, because probably 10,000 guys ran out and tried to buy 5 cases on whatever they could find in 24hrs. Sellers saw a mark coming. Buyers are going to keep hounding every last case, because it might be the last one. Or it’ll only go up in price.
     

    WeldonHunter

    Active Member
    Apr 27, 2011
    129
    Louisiana
    If right, that’s hurt. But also wrong. 800 millions rounds is a lot. But US manufacturers PRIOR to 2020 were producing ~8.1 billion rounds per year. Sure, some were exports or for the military. But the majority was for US domestic civilian consumption. This doesn’t include the import from other sources.

    So if true, that means Russian imports, if 800 million rounds, actually represents no more than 10% of the total market. Likely more in the 6-7% range when accounting for other importers.

    Sure, a higher portion of some calibers.

    Sam seems like a nice guy. But if you read his emails, it is a CONSTANT alarmist sales push by him. Has been for years and years. Buy now because prices are only going to go up and I predict soon! Lately it’s been 19 months of the highest demand ever and it’ll just get worse. Month before it was 18 months of the highest demand ever and it’ll only get worse. Rinse and repeat.

    If you say something long enough, odds are good you’ll be proven right. But the boy still gets ignored and eaten by the wolf…

    That said, the exist permits are good for up to 2 years. Right now it’s a mass run on ammo (yet again!). Scarcity is only because people bought all they could literally overnight. Supply itself won’t be constrained in any way for a couple of years.

    Yes I am against this decision and it sucks. But it is only sky falling NOW, because probably 10,000 guys ran out and tried to buy 5 cases on whatever they could find in 24hrs. Sellers saw a mark coming. Buyers are going to keep hounding every last case, because it might be the last one. Or it’ll only go up in price.

    Sam is a good guy, he's been a close friend of mine for about 10 years. He's not trying to sound alarmist but the constant emails saying that prices are going to go up might just be because they have. I've watched these runs on all things firearms since about 2010 and each one has had it's own path it followed. What's going on now and the last almost 2 years and before is unprecedented for even the most seasoned retailer. That said I've been watching this from a place that most don't see. I run gun-deals.com, been at this for 10 years, everyday I'm on the site watching and dealing with this crap. I hope you're right and there's going to be no interruption of the supply for years to come but I personally don't see this playing out that way. I don't know what the answers are but I'm sure we're about to find out.
     

    adit

    ReMember
    MDS Supporter
    Feb 20, 2013
    19,525
    DE
    If the ban stays in place, it would seem like a good catalyst for domestic manufacturers to expand their production capability...

    You can't get people to work anywhere these days. I'd imagine that the current factories have staffing shortages.
     

    JohnnyE

    Ultimate Member
    MDS Supporter
    Jan 18, 2013
    9,468
    MoCo
    I wish there were photos of brick and mortar retailer ammo shelves from before the pandemic. The amount of shelf space devoted to Russian ammo versus all the others would, I think, be a quick and dirty indication of the ratio of sales of one to the other. The most space is devoted to that which sells the most. 9mm gets a lot more space than 7mm mag.

    I just don't remember very much shelf space being devoted to Russian ammo.
     

    bibitor

    Kulak
    MDS Supporter
    Oct 10, 2017
    1,894
    FEMA Region III
    I wish there were photos of brick and mortar retailer ammo shelves from before the pandemic. The amount of shelf space devoted to Russian ammo versus all the others would, I think, be a quick and dirty indication of the ratio of sales of one to the other. The most space is devoted to that which sells the most. 9mm gets a lot more space than 7mm mag.

    I just don't remember very much shelf space being devoted to Russian ammo.

    I think one of the factors here is, at least in the internet age, no one really bought Russian ammo by the box. 1,000 rounds is usually the minimum order and it didn't make much sense for LGS's to stock a pallet when consumer could just go to one of the warehouse ammo sites and order in bulk.
     

    JohnnyE

    Ultimate Member
    MDS Supporter
    Jan 18, 2013
    9,468
    MoCo
    I think one of the factors here is, at least in the internet age, no one really bought Russian ammo by the box. 1,000 rounds is usually the minimum order and it didn't make much sense for LGS's to stock a pallet when consumer could just go to one of the warehouse ammo sites and order in bulk.

    Great point, but I am conflicted in the sense that you can say the same regarding Win white box 9mm. It's just that the Russian shelf has been dwarfed by non-Russian space. Big time. I'd buy Russian golden Tiger in 7.62x39 by the case for my AK's, and Lake City 5.56 for my AR's. I guess I am trying to read tea leaves when I should just ask some of the LGS owners with whom I am friends.
     

    ericoak

    don't drop Aboma on me
    Feb 20, 2010
    6,806
    Howard County
    If right, that’s hurt. But also wrong. 800 millions rounds is a lot. But US manufacturers PRIOR to 2020 were producing ~8.1 billion rounds per year. Sure, some were exports or for the military. But the majority was for US domestic civilian consumption. This doesn’t include the import from other sources.

    So if true, that means Russian imports, if 800 million rounds, actually represents no more than 10% of the total market. Likely more in the 6-7% range when accounting for other importers.

    Sure, a higher portion of some calibers.

    Sam seems like a nice guy. But if you read his emails, it is a CONSTANT alarmist sales push by him. Has been for years and years. Buy now because prices are only going to go up and I predict soon! Lately it’s been 19 months of the highest demand ever and it’ll just get worse. Month before it was 18 months of the highest demand ever and it’ll only get worse. Rinse and repeat.

    If you say something long enough, odds are good you’ll be proven right. But the boy still gets ignored and eaten by the wolf…

    That said, the exist permits are good for up to 2 years. Right now it’s a mass run on ammo (yet again!). Scarcity is only because people bought all they could literally overnight. Supply itself won’t be constrained in any way for a couple of years.

    Yes I am against this decision and it sucks. But it is only sky falling NOW, because probably 10,000 guys ran out and tried to buy 5 cases on whatever they could find in 24hrs. Sellers saw a mark coming. Buyers are going to keep hounding every last case, because it might be the last one. Or it’ll only go up in price.

    I bet a big chunk of that Us production is .22LR. I have Federal, Winchester, and CCI .22, all US made. A much larger percentage of center fire rifle cartridges are Russian.
     

    WeldonHunter

    Active Member
    Apr 27, 2011
    129
    Louisiana
    I bet a big chunk of that Us production is .22LR. I have Federal, Winchester, and CCI .22, all US made. A much larger percentage of center fire rifle cartridges are Russian.

    Exactly. I've seen estimates of 22lr yearly production numbers of between 2.5 and 5 billion rounds made in the US. 22lr is probably the most popular and universal cartridge worldwide.
     

    Athelney878

    Active Member
    Jan 9, 2021
    201
    Montgomery County
    Government oversight group taking a swing:

    EMPOWER OVERSIGHT SEEKS INFORMATION ON WHETHER THE STATE DEPARTMENT ABUSED SANCTIONS PROCESS TO PURSUE BIDEN GUN CONTROL AGENDA AND PUNISH LAW-ABIDING GUN OWNERS
    FOIA UPDATE
    August 26, 2021
    Transmitted: August 26, 2021

    To: Department of State

    FULL REQUEST:

    State Department Ammo Ban Information Request PDF

    Re: Restrictions on Americans’ Access to Ammunition

    SUMMARY

    Empower Oversight submitted a FOIA request to the Department of State seeking information to reveal whether its recent announcement of a ban on importing Russian ammunition is a deceptive abuse of the sanctions process in order to pursue President Biden’s domestic gun control agenda and restrict Americans’ access to ammunition by administrative fiat.

    In 2020, then-candidate Biden explicitly sought to restrict citizens’ access to ammunition through legislation to outlaw online ammunition sales. In April of 2021, after no such law had passed, he publicly stated: “[w]hether Congress acts or not, I’m going to use all the resources at my disposal as President” to pursue his gun control agenda. In late June of 2021, his administration announced it would pursue a “whole-of-government approach” across government agencies to pursue gun control, with President Biden publicly stating that the “entire administration … will continue taking action where we can.”

    Eight weeks later, the State Department announced its ban on importing Russian ammunition, which makes up a large part of the American ammunition supply. The State Department claimed it is enacting this substantial restriction on law-abiding American gun owners’ access to ammunition for an entirely different reason.

    The Department claimed the ban was enacted as part of a second batch of sanctions to punish the Russian government for its use of a nerve agent in the August 2020 poisoning of Aleksey Navalany. However, the State Department failed to assert any relationship between sanctioned ammunition manufacturers in Russia and Mr. Navalny’s poisoning. The ammunition ban is unlikely to meaningfully affect the Russian government but will substantially affect the American public’s Second Amendment rights.

    The Supreme Court has held that courts can set aside agency actions as unlawful under the Administrative Procedure Act when the agency’s stated rationale for the action is pretextual or contrived. The Department should promptly respond to Empower Oversight’s FOIA request and provide the documents needed to establish whether the stated purpose for its action restricting the exercise of Americans’ Second Amendment rights was legitimate or merely a pretext to cover a gun control agenda. If it refuses, litigation may be necessary.

    If you have first-hand information you’d like to disclose to assist Empower Oversight with these inquiries, please contact us confidentially here.

    https://empowr.us/empower-oversight-seeks-information-on-whether-the-state-department-abused-sanctions-process-to-pursue-biden-gun-control-agenda-and-punish-law-abiding-gun-owners/
     

    Mr.Culper

    Active Member
    Jan 16, 2021
    858
    Anyway you slice it,, the 2A is in for bumpy ride the next 3-100 years.
    The Ammunition shortage (caused by panic buying of ammo/guns) was just starting to stabilize, with the fear level kept high the shortage will continue.
    Firearms and components have just started to come back in stock and prices stabilize or lower.

    Expect the threat of legislation, EOs, and/or a democrat inspired shootings to keep things from stabilizing and return to normal
     

    Mr.Culper

    Active Member
    Jan 16, 2021
    858
    I stopped buying when 9mm FMJ went over 30 CPR,, I slowed down my range time to conserve but have "enough"
    I was hoping to start buying ammo/shooting more,, but now this.

    I wont get mad,, I am just shifting my efforts/money to "builds",, I had ZERO intention of ever any 80% builds,,Maybe a neighborhood "Milling Party" in the near future. Perhaps a 10 pack of 80 lowers?
    Wife joined a lady's shooting club, they meet every other week (?),, 1/2 are new to firearms,, someone brought an AR to the last range day,, now they ALL wont one.

    Unintended consequences Joe,, unintended consequences
     

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