esqappellate
President, MSI
- Feb 12, 2012
- 7,408
The ruling will be based on what happens in Richards/Peruta/Baker. Those could be decided any time now.
It does matter what the ruling is, because SCOTUS has been refusing to take any 2A related cases. A win at CA9 is binding upon CA and HI.
If the 9th actually strikes down a statute, then that greatly enhances the odds of SCT review if the State is dumb enough to risk it. But note that all three can be decided as restricted to how the statute is being applied by particular sheriffs or chiefs. We could get a broad reading of the 2A but only in that limited context. The more limited, the less likely cert. And don't forget that the 9th might well grant en banc, like they did before only to punt.