Maybe it's me and I didn't pay attention. It's seems like there are alot of 1911's popping up for sale recently. Is this an attempt to sell at a higher price before cmp releases their stash and possibly bring prices down?
Can't say I have been watching, but may also be people trying to free up Christmas cash.
CMP may drive them up or down, hard to say. Could drive up demand with all the buzz and then prices after a guy decides to not do what they require. When I lived in a free state and could buy cash/carry I think I would pay more for a 1911 I could inspect and leave with that day then do the CMP path, especially if I wasn't really read in on the CMP thing.
Possibly. I can never figure out 1911 prices. If you go to a gun show (Chantilly for example), I suspect they are the most common military surplus pistol there. They are also one of the more expensive. Guns are a bit weird because many dealers/collectors are willing to sit on inventory for years and years.
It's not a true supply and demand type equation. There's plenty of supply in theory, but no real impetus to sell. The same guys bring the same $2500 1911s to the same gun show year after year after year. They're more collectors though. My guess is that if it were easier to buy and sell online (not that it's hard), prices would be lower. Locally, I suspect some rather collectible 1911s get sold at much less than they would fetch on the open market.
The thing to do, is to keep a of log sales on gunbroker and other sites. Gunbroker used to have a longer history of completed auctions available for searching, but I think it's limited to 30 days now.
If CMP's release drives them down it will be short lived. Its not a lot of 1911's in the scope of things and I bet they get a pretty penny. If anything I would bet on the fact that CMP (especially if they auction most) gets premium pricing on low volume items that it will bump the market up.
These also will likely be very worn guns, if anything I am worried about them flooding the market with less desirable guns like happened with the M1 Carbine FAT stamped rifles where the prices are not changing but you have to get even deeper into assessing condition and minor differences.
I think there's also been some larger collections being sold as the older guys let go (one way or the other).
There seem to be a lot more PP's, P38's etc this year as well, and some wild rare stuff popping out of the woodwork.
While there's lots of 1911's out there, there aren't as many all-correct high-condition ones so the demand and prices for those will (always) be much higher.
Which tends foster the "my 6cyl rusty Mustang is worth what that restored Shelby sold for on Barrett-Jackson" phenomenon too.
I agree with JimB the CMP 1911 craze won't drive prices down that's for sure. If anything it'll drive up prices, esp for the good stuff.