Data analysis of 1800 Shootings by Caliber

[ToolAA]

This report is from May, I had not seen it before and I searched here to see if it had been previously cited.

I’ll jump to the chase first. Basically the article’s author interprets the data to reinforce the claim that training and by extension shot placement, is more important than caliber.

It’s a good read and they have some decent charts. They use autopsy data, police and military reports to define what they call a “One Shot Stop” as the condition where the person being stopped ceased firing or attempted to flee and collapsed within 5 feet. Relationship between number if rounds fired vs caliber used to “Stop” the engagement were tallied.

They also acknowledge that their study cannot take into consideration the effect of special self defense or hollow point ammunition and obviously a host of other wide ranging variables, and there the study is not conclusive in any way. It’s just an examination of a very specific dataset.

One Shot Stopping Power by Caliber

This is one of the most controversial subjects on the internet. It is often the rationalization for carrying the largest round you can possible control for self defense. The real question is, are there any concrete differences in stopping power amongst handgun calibers, and between long guns and pistols?

Some interesting correlations for example is that there is less than a 10% spread in performance between .38 Special and 45 ACP. Additional point to note that the spread in shots required to end the engagement for all handgun calibers included in the dataset was between 1.4 and 2.4 rounds fired.

There more detail in the article and I think it’s worthy of reading and discussion.

Link to the article.

Analyzing 1800 Shootings: Which Caliber Has the Best Stopping Power? - Tier Three Tactical

I'll cut to the chase. Stopping power is largely a myth. Regardless of what the internet tells you, there aren't any magic rounds that are guaranteed to stop someone violently attacking you. However, there certainly are calibers that perform much better than others. This article is going to look...

www.tierthreetactical.com

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[pbharvey]

Without reading the article how do you know if it was the first or second round that incapacitated someone if you double tap them? How do they know which shot was the first one? Say you shot someone in the big toe and then in the heart. Is that a two shot incapacitation? It didn’t take two shots to stop them it only took one well placed shot.

 

[RRomig]

Without reading the article how do you know if it was the first or second round that incapacitated someone if you double tap them? How do they know which shot was the first one? Say you shot someone in the big toe and then in the heart. Is that a two shot incapacitation? It didn’t take two shots to stop them it only took one well placed shot.

Thinking along the same lines seeing the autos showing more shots but there’s usually going to be multiple shots before anyone knows what the damage is

 

[4g64loser]

Thinking along the same lines seeing the autos showing more shots but there’s usually going to be multiple shots before anyone knows what the damage is

Anyone who is good with a revolver is going to be putting multiple rounds in the subject before any pause to assess. Guy I worked with could put six rounds of 38 on a full size pepper popper at ten yards before it fell. I never got past five rounds using a 45 semi. Using a j frame 38, I could usually do two or three rounds.

 

[ToolAA]

Without reading the article how do you know if it was the first or second round that incapacitated someone if you double tap them? How do they know which shot was the first one? Say you shot someone in the big toe and then in the heart. Is that a two shot incapacitation? It didn’t take two shots to stop them it only took one well placed shot.

The article states that they only took the total shots fired and divided that by the total number of engagements for each caliber studied. At least that’s how I understand it.

So I’m guessing if there were 300 engagements where a 9mm caliber was used and 500 rounds were fired the average would be 1.66 rounds required to end the engagement. What it doesn’t take into account are the specifics of the individual engagement. So if you had one case where 17 rounds were fired, but the attacker would have been stopped after the 3 round, that detail would be obviously lost in the analysis.

I think considering that all of the data was from police and military reports, it’s likely to assume that in those cases, the officers or soldiers would stop firing when they felt the threat was over. Perhaps they are often more effective at determining when the threat was incapacitated. What was not clear to me, is where the data from some of the more oddball calibers comes from. I don’t think there are any U.S. police or military persons carrying .22 LR it .25 caliber handguns.


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[RRomig]

Anyone who is good with a revolver is going to be putting multiple rounds in the subject before any pause to assess. Guy I worked with could put six rounds of 38 on a full size pepper popper at ten yards before it fell. I never got past five rounds using a 45 semi. Using a j frame 38, I could usually do two or three rounds.

You are totally correct that it’s doable but “most” people don’t rail their 6 round revolver like they do their 17 round 9

 

[4g64loser]

You are totally correct that it’s doable but “most” people don’t rail their 6 round revolver like they do their 17 round 9

Admittedly correct. When I shoot my j frames, though, I do make it a point to shoot two and three round strings just so that I don't build inertia of single round engagement. For comparison, I usually work two to four round fast strings on close range targets as well unless doing a specific drill that stipulates shot count.

More on-topic, this is an interesting article but I like the deeper dive that marshall and sanow take into the results of shootings. They dig into the details including the load used. Over decades of collecting shoot results, they are definitely experts.

 

[Tungsten]

Hmmmm so 2-3 shots regardless of handgun caliber.

 

[Doctor_M]

One shot stop better from a .32 than a .38 spc.? I think I would still trust my personal observations and stay away from .32 or smaller.

 

[Biggfoot44]

This article is analyzing the data from Greg Eleflitz

 

[chuck]

I always knew my SR22 was more effective (on average) than any .40 out there.

 

[Garet Jax]

Without reading the article how do you know if it was the first or second round that incapacitated someone if you double tap them? How do they know which shot was the first one? Say you shot someone in the big toe and then in the heart. Is that a two shot incapacitation? It didn’t take two shots to stop them it only took one well placed shot.

The shooters would shoot the perp once with one caliber, then wait to see if the perp was stopped. If not they would change calibers and shoot again. They were all Olympic caliber shooters so they were able to place their second round within a quarter of the first round.

 

[Johnny5k]

Im guessing this is US data? I tried to check, but the original data source wouldn't load for me.

Also, this graph, left out of OP, informs some of the other responses given here.

 

[Doctor_M]

One shot stop better from a .32 than a .38 spc.? I think I would still trust my personal observations and stay away from .32 or smaller.

 

[rbird7282]

Many people get hung up on stopping power. One shot stopping power is largely a myth.
I read about an incident where someone was shot with 4-5 rounds of .357 mag at point blank range and lived.

Shot placement has much more to do with it, it has even been discussed on MDS from a trauma surgeon.

Shoot until the threat is over.


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[Michigander08]

I agree with rbird. Can we settle this please? Here is what we all need to do: empty the whole magazine or pulling the trigger on that revolver until it is empty. We don't have to worry about how good a single shot is.

 

[4g64loser]

Majority of those shot with handguns stateside survive. Single shot or multiple. Used to be called the 80/20 rule. Drugged up or stone sober. A motivated person is still lethal with plenty of lead in them. Some even soak up multiple rifle shots with no chemical adulterants in their system. Outliers, perhaps, but still a concern. Perhaps I am wrong but I view handguns as diminishment; an opportunity for me to disengage and escape by slowing a threat. I don't plan on hanging around on the x. Shoot and scoot.

 

[ToolAA]

I agree with rbird. Can we settle this please? Here is what we all need to do: empty the whole magazine or pulling the trigger on that revolver until it is empty. We don't have to worry about how good a single shot is.

I agree too. I think what I take away is that if you have a .380 in your pants pocket or a Glock 27 in your IWB you are probably in a decent position to defend yourself either way.


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[lazarus]

Without reading the article how do you know if it was the first or second round that incapacitated someone if you double tap them? How do they know which shot was the first one? Say you shot someone in the big toe and then in the heart. Is that a two shot incapacitation? It didn’t take two shots to stop them it only took one well placed shot.

This. Reading the entire thing, there is no information on how the numbers were derived. Now, I can grok how "did you die or not".

However, if a person fired 1 shot and then waited a few seconds to see if they dropped dead or stopped might mean a single round stop.

Someone who immediately blazed away with 5 rounds until they were flat on the ground took 5 rounds to stop them. But the very first may have been an incapacitating shot.

Not sure there is going to be a good way to derive much other than "how many times was the bad guy hit" and "did they die".

Anything else is going to be kind of subjective unless you interview the shooter, bad guy, and do forensics on each case.

Okay, so the first hit, the bad guy kept coming for a second and then the good guy shot a 2nd time and at that point the bad guy dropped, stopped, or ran away?

In part I question the methodology to determine actual number of hits NEEDED to stop a bad guy. A 38spc someone is probably a lot more likely to only fire one shot. Or at the very least is firing SLOWER, than someone firing a 9mm semi-auto, which is like 99.5% of all 9mms. A little 380 pocket pistol is probably just as likely to than a 9mm larger pistol.

Because just on its surface, almost anything 9mm is going to carry more energy, with a bullet that probably performs better. Unless of course a lot of people who carry 9mms carry ball ammo, but most of the people who carry 380 only load it with defensive ammo. Because the same handgun and same type of loading being equal, a 9mm is going to be significantly superior to 380 for neutralizing a bad guy.

So something else is at play. How they are used being the most likely. If I knew I had 6 shots on tap, I'd probably be a little more circumspect in how I am shooting. Heck, the 380s vs 9mm again might be that someone with a 380 jerks off 3 or 4 rounds on average and maybe 1, or sometimes 2 hits. That guy with the 9mm might jerk off the same 3-4 rounds, but is a lot more likely to hit with 2 or 3.

 

[woodline]

This article is analyzing the data from Greg Eleflitz

As Biggfoot44 pointed out, this is a secondary analysis of the Eleflitz data. I think a lot of the questions being asked in this thread are discussed by the original author:

An Alternate Look at Handgun Stopping Power

Written by: Greg Ellifritz I've been interested in firearm stopping power for a very long time. I remember reading Handguns magazine back in the late 1980s when Evan Marshall was writing articles about

www.activeresponsetraining.net

He discusses why he thinks some of his data is skewed (small sample sizes for some cartridges, significant use of ball ammo in 9mm, inability to break down by type of ammo used overall, lack of data on heavy clothing and shootings involving significant barriers, etc). I think the dataset is complete enough to draw the basic conclusions he came to though: handgun stopping power is a myth, shot placement is key, head shots>torso shots>extremity shots for incapacitation, etc. One interesting conclusion he comes to is that in the vast majority of cases, a single hit anywhere is usually enough to make the aggressor cease and desist aggressive activity.

I would personally love to learn more about is in the shotgun and rifle data. These seem to be used as controls to contrast handgun performance (or lack thereof) against a baseline. Would love to see a follow on study breaking those categories down by caliber/cartridge. For instance is the advice I give smaller/less experienced people who insist upon using a shotgun for home defense actually proven out in the real world as predicted by ballistics tests? E.G. 20 gauge no smaller than #4 buckshot. Can anyone find a statistically significant number of cases where a home defense shooting actually resulted in overpenetration that harmed an innocent?

Regardless of all that, great article in the OP. Thanks for sharing.