Economics

[one-star]

Looking for some data....Im trying to present the argument in a different way to representatives who dont care about rights but do care about money (my tax dollars).

For example the millionaires tax fiasco....they now collect less than they did before they raised taxes because so many left the state.


So please help shoot some holes in my assumptions.

There are 43k registered "assault weapons" in Maryland right now, loosely assuming that there is 1 weapon per owner and the majority of owners fit the standard demographic (male, 25-45, middle to upper middle class) then each owner pays about $15k-20k in maryland taxes a year. Assuming that 10% of the group splits the state if the ban takes place that is 4300x15000 or $65 million in tax revenue plus $14 million in sales tax revenue (cause we will be shopping elsewhere too). $80 million in lost revenue seems like something that might make people pay attention.

Do my numbers make sense? I realize that most people own more than one reigstered gun, but there are also a number of people who brought guns into the state when they moved here and never "voluntarily registered" them (as you do when you buy one).

Thoughts?

 

[good guy 176]

Your numbers are way off the mark and no one will bolt from a million dollar income over this issue. Relocating is a major pain and jobs in that tax bracket aren't found on every corner.

 

[t84a]

Actually, it did happen between 2008-2010. There are some crazy estimates of tax losses to the state by opponents of the milionaire tax (that expired in 2010) but the gov claims that as one left another moved in. I highly doubt that. I also question so,e of the estimates. In any event, if you try this angle, the response will be that the state did not lose tax revenue.

 

[one-star]

Your numbers are way off the mark and no one will bolt from a million dollar income over this issue. Relocating is a major pain and jobs in that tax bracket aren't found on every corner.

Thats what Im curious about....I think there are many people in my boat where live in MD but work in DC. I could just as easily live in NOVA but havent been annoyed enough yet to move, this however will change my mind. Thats why I was giving a 10% move estimate, between those who live in Bmore suburbia who would move up the road to PA and those in MoCo who would move over into NOVA for the most part.

 

[one-star]

Actually, it did happen between 2008-2010. There are some crazy estimates of tax losses to the state by opponents of the milionaire tax (that expired in 2010) but the gov claims that as one left another moved in. I highly doubt that. I also question so,e of the estimates. In any event, if you try this angle, the response will be that the state did not lose tax revenue.

http://articles.baltimoresun.com/20...higher-tax-bracket-individual-income-franchot

Yup

 

[ROBAR35]

Your numbers are way off the mark and no one will bolt from a million dollar income over this issue. Relocating is a major pain and jobs in that tax bracket aren't found on every corner.

I hate to disagree with another member but if this bs passes I will be leaving MD and taking my company and 50k + in tax revenue with me To a more business and gun friendly state. This AWB crap is just the last straw for me!

 

[chromedragon70]

I may be NOVA bound someday because of this. Problem is, it is so damn much more expensive than where I live in MD.

 

[My Toy]

I hate to disagree with another member but if this bs passes I will be leaving MD and taking my company and 50k + in tax revenue with me To a more business and gun friendly state. This AWB crap is just the last straw for me!

Amen to that; its finally reached a threshold for me. Not just the gun legislation but the no end in sight on tax increases for the shrinking number of producers in this state. Yesterday finally made a call to PA realtor to at least see what is available in the way of property. My thought is get a building site now while real estate values are down. When it comes time to build a large part of your nut to crack is behind you.

 

[sajidakh]

Not that it's specific to the bills being discussed, but on a related note the potential millions that is lost every year due to residents applying for non-resident carry permits could be brought up. With more and more restrictions being brought up, it just may make it more appealing for residents to move to more law-abiding citizen friendly states.

 

[Wapato]

I'm not sure if that would be the most effective argument in this state unless we have enough republicans in the right places to completely block something. My understanding is that this is not the case.

Saying things that way sounds a lot like telling the democrats that their evil enemies will leave if they pass this legislation, allowing them to get their way much easier in the future.

Though I don't know, it might play well with some people.

 

[sclag22]

I like your concept, in theory, but I think that your assumptions are high. The top marginal rate in MD is 5.75% on incomes above $250k. Given this rate, the $15-20k in tax revenue generated would mean that the average A.W. owner was making over $250k -- I feel like that is high.

Additionally, you can make the assumption that all of the A.W. owners would flee the state, but, again, I don't think that it is a realistic assumption. Honestly, I would be surprised if it was even 50%, because of reasons stated above (trouble relocating, etc.).

This is also a very basic model, because we have not taken into account what percentage of A.W. owners are also business owners, and how many people they employ within the state, etc. I don't doubt that MD would lose out on some tax revs, but I don't know if it would be substantial enough to convince the dems...they'll just increase a tax elsewhere. I can see it now...."Can we really put a price on the safety of our fellow Marylander's?"

All that being said, I'm still glad to help with any sort of research and number crunching if you'd like

 

[one-star]

I like your concept, in theory, but I think that your assumptions are high. The top marginal rate in MD is 5.75% on incomes above $250k. Given this rate, the $15-20k in tax revenue generated would mean that the average A.W. owner was making over $250k -- I feel like that is high.

Additionally, you can make the assumption that all of the A.W. owners would flee the state, but, again, I don't think that it is a realistic assumption. Honestly, I would be surprised if it was even 50%, because of reasons stated above (trouble relocating, etc.).

This is also a very basic model, because we have not taken into account what percentage of A.W. owners are also business owners, and how many people they employ within the state, etc. I don't doubt that MD would lose out on some tax revs, but I don't know if it would be substantial enough to convince the dems...they'll just increase a tax elsewhere. I can see it now...."Can we really put a price on the safety of our fellow Marylander's?"

All that being said, I'm still glad to help with any sort of research and number crunching if you'd like

Sweet, Im swamped with work for the next 2 days but Ill PM you Friday?

 

[sclag22]

Sweet, Im swamped with work for the next 2 days but Ill PM you Friday?

Sounds good. Hopefully I can help with what you need