En banc Decision in Peruta -- a loss

[redeemed.man]

He has no choice. He is a member of the Court now. That's what they do. And there are a bunch of other cases up for that Conference too. He has to get up to speed asap. Sleep will be in short supply for that guy.

So what are your thoughts on a favorable ruling in Peruta now that Gorsuch is on board?

 

[danb]

Not just conference cases... there are probably a fair number of ties that he needs to opine on. Plus he's on the cafeteria committee!

I was curious how the clerk thing worked, since the lack of a clerk affects productivity. Is he bringing one from the 10th? Borrowing one from the pool?

 

[Blacksmith101]

He certainly already knows what is on the courts platter just like we do and I would not be surprised he has been getting up to speed since he was nominated. He clerked for Kennedy so he is all ready familiar with the inner workings of the court and he doesn't seem like the type to get caught with his pants down.

 

[Elliotte]

So what are your thoughts on a favorable ruling in Peruta now that Gorsuch is on board?

My thoughts on the matter, from the Rockville HS rape thread, but it applies here too

Hate to break it to you, but this SCOTUS won't be any different than the one that signed off on gay marriage, Obamacare, refused to take any post McDonald 2A cases, or any other decision since Sotomayor joined the court. Gorsuch will only be replacing Scalia not taking the seat of one of the 4 libs, or 2 moderates (Roberts & Kennedy). And unless he is as outspoken and conservative as Scalia (which will be tough), it will be a net loss.

 

[esqappellate]

So what are your thoughts on a favorable ruling in Peruta now that Gorsuch is on board?

Long shot at best. Recall that Scalia was on the Court when they refused to hear the same issue from the 2nd, 3d and 4th Circuits. Gorsuch is unlikely to be more pro 2A than Scalia (that would be hard). Indeed, Gorsuch never wrote a 2A opinion while on the 10th Circuit. So, while the NRA has strongly endorsed him, I am in 'wait and see' mode. I think we are much more likely to see cert in Binderup on the government's petition.

 

[Not_an_outlaw]

He certainly already knows what is on the courts platter just like we do and I would not be surprised he has been getting up to speed since he was nominated. He clerked for Kennedy so he is all ready familiar with the inner workings of the court and he doesn't seem like the type to get caught with his pants down.

If he was getting up to speed before he was confirmed, I want an investigation. He may have been talking to someone. (Sarcasm)

 

[GlocksAndPatriots]

Long shot at best. Recall that Scalia was on the Court when they refused to hear the same issue from the 2nd, 3d and 4th Circuits. Gorsuch is unlikely to be more pro 2A than Scalia (that would be hard). Indeed, Gorsuch never wrote a 2A opinion while on the 10th Circuit. So, while the NRA has strongly endorsed him, I am in 'wait and see' mode. I think we are much more likely to see cert in Binderup on the government's petition.

I think Gorsuch is much more likely to be pro-2A given that he didn't grow up in NJ like Scalia. That said, I think John "Obamacare is a tax" Roberts and Anthony "Human dignity is found in gay sex" Kennedy are more likely the problems.

 

[danb]

I feel Kennedy may have been a holdout, but not for the reason you think. He may have been holding out only because he was keeping tabs on the CA gun cases and wanted to wait for the Peruta panel opinion.

Keep in mind, Drake got relisted 3 times before it was denied. I think it may have had some unadvertised procedural or other issues.

If Kennedy is indeed soft, Gorsuch (Kennedy's former clerk and seeming protoge) I believe will be able to persuade him.

 

[GlocksAndPatriots]

I feel Kennedy may have been a holdout, but not for the reason you think. He may have been holding out only because he was keeping tabs on the CA gun cases and wanted to wait for the Peruta panel opinion.

Keep in mind, Drake got relisted 3 times before it was denied. I think it may have had some unadvertised procedural or other issues.

If Kennedy is indeed soft, Gorsuch (Kennedy's former clerk and seeming protoge) I believe will be able to persuade him.

I hope so. How amazing would it be as a thumb in the eye to the left for a major pro gun decision to be written by Gorsuch? They'll be whining incessantly about how it was a "stolen" seat that belonged to Garland.

 

[Mike OTDP]

I don't think we see a major 2A case until there's another new Justice. Right now, the split is 4-4-1...and nobody really wants to roll the dice on how Kennedy would rule. No, the smart thing is to wait until we have this in the bag.

 

[GlocksAndPatriots]

I don't think we see a major 2A case until there's another new Justice. Right now, the split is 4-4-1...and nobody really wants to roll the dice on how Kennedy would rule. No, the smart thing is to wait until we have this in the bag.

Hopefully Kennedy/Ginsburg are done in the next year and a half while we still have the Senate.

 

[MDFF2008]

There was actually a story online today about rumors of Kennedy retiring.

 

[Kharn]

There's been some rumors about Kennedy offering his resignation if Scalia's replacement was someone he approved of.
Then there's Kennedy's every-fifth-year party, but instead of waiting until mid-June 2018 as would be the schedule, he's holding it at the end of June 2017 to correspond with his 80th birthday and the end of this term, which could indicate a farewell party.
On the other hand, Kennedy has hired four clerks for next term, a retired Justice only gets one.

The other thing: The 2018 Senate incumbents are 25 Ds, 8 Rs.
So for the Rs: Arizona, Mississippi, Nebraska, Nevada, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Wyoming.
Ds/Is: CA, CT, DE, FL, HI, IN, ME, MD, MA, MI, MN, MO, MT, NJ, NM, NY, ND, OH, PA, RI, VT, VA, WA, WV, WI.
Several of those D/I states were Trump's last year, I wouldn't be so quick to write them off.

 

[GlocksAndPatriots]

There's been some rumors about Kennedy offering his resignation if Scalia's replacement was someone he approved of.
Then there's Kennedy's every-fifth-year party, but instead of waiting until mid-June 2018 as would be the schedule, he's holding it at the end of June 2017 to correspond with his 80th birthday and the end of this term, which could indicate a farewell party.
On the other hand, Kennedy has hired four clerks for next term, a retired Justice only gets one.

The other thing: The 2018 Senate incumbents are 25 Ds, 8 Rs.
So for the Rs: Arizona, Mississippi, Nebraska, Nevada, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Wyoming.
Ds/Is: CA, CT, DE, FL, HI, IN, ME, MD, MA, MI, MN, MO, MT, NJ, NM, NY, ND, OH, PA, RI, VT, VA, WA, WV, WI.
Several of those D/I states were Trump's last year, I wouldn't be so quick to write them off.

Yeah, but Trump is making a fool of himself. I think we're definitely going to lose the House in the midterms if he doesn't stop.

 

[adit]

Yeah, but Trump is making a fool of himself. I think we're definitely going to lose the House in the midterms if he doesn't stop.

Huh?

 

[GlocksAndPatriots]

Huh?

The wiretapping BS and everything else.

 

[DC-W]

The wiretapping BS and everything else.

I thought like you all throughout the primaries. I was proven very, very wrong.

BEND THE KNEE! Hop onboard the TRUMP TRAIN! THERE ARE NO BRAKES!!!
The HIGH ENERGY of the GOD EMPEROR will invigorate you to do things BIG LEAGUE!!!

PRAISE KEK!

 

[adit]

The wiretapping BS and everything else.

Where has he been proven wrong?

 

[danb]

I wish I had a dime for every time someone (myself included) predicted that this time it was really over Trump finally made a fool of himself beyond repair.

Trump is a strong believer in the rule that there is no such thing as bad publicity.

As long as he keeps nominating people like Gorsuch I think he will be fine. The biggest enemy of House Republicans is themselves.

If Gorsuch does not "pan out" on 2nd Amendment cases, I think that says a lot more about the merits of these cases.

 

[GlocksAndPatriots]

I wish I had a dime for every time someone (myself included) predicted that this time it was really over Trump finally made a fool of himself beyond repair.

Trump is a strong believer in the rule that there is no such thing as bad publicity.

As long as he keeps nominating people like Gorsuch I think he will be fine. The biggest enemy of House Republicans is themselves.

If Gorsuch does not "pan out" on 2nd Amendment cases, I think that says a lot more about the merits of these cases.

I don't disagree with his nominations, or most of his actions. But if the polls are right (and they were wrong in 2016 of course) then the house GOP is in trouble in 2018.