Preparing For Spreading Coronavirus

[willtill]

Hogan saying that all people returning from “spring break” should self quarantine for 14 days. Yea, I’m sure they’ll listen to that also!

Please GOD, tell me you're joking?

Probably no joke.

It’s like Mayor Jack Young’s recent plea to the thugs of Baltimore, to stop shooting each other so hospital beds can be kept available.

You know what is next. They’re going to focus like a laser beam on the law abiding.

 

[Alea Jacta Est]

It’s like Mayor Jack Young’s recent plea to the thugs of Baltimore, to stop shooting each other so hospital beds can be kept available.

You know what is next. They’re going to focus like a laser beam on the law abiding.

They’d gonna need a really good scope to see me....

 

[Alphabrew]

If I die of Coronavirus, it’s because I just saw my cousin at Wegmans who is a nurse and she gave me a big hug. I almost died right there, not sure what she was thinking. It happened so fast I couldn’t stop it.

 

[ironpony]

If I die of Coronavirus, it’s because I just saw my cousin at Wegmans who is a nurse and she gave me a big hug. I almost died right there, not sure what she was thinking. It happened so fast I couldn’t stop it.

Dibs on you TP!

 

[Alphabrew]

Frederick Wegmans- just about wiped out of paper products. I did get some canned tuna, no canned chicken. No ground beef or fresh chicken breasts which sucks.

They are taking measures to prevent spread of the virus, like sanitizing the checkout station after each customer. Hand sanitizing stations were everywhere.

 

[MykR0k]

Added the quote from the FNP.

Unfriggin believable, some of these recommendations are idiotic. The risk to people over 60 is far greater just walking through a grocery store. The kids on spring break are in a warm climate and many times on a beach which won't be a hot spot for the Chinese Virus.

These jack$$ decisions are causing FAR more damage than they are preventing. This cure will be our disease for a long time to come! I seriously question the motivation behind most of this crap.

 

[teratos]

Unfriggin believable, some of these recommendations are idiotic. The risk to people over 60 is far greater just walking through a grocery store. The kids on spring break are in a warm climate and many times on a beach which won't be a hot spot for the Chinese Virus.

These jack$$ decisions are causing FAR more damage than they are preventing. This cure will be our disease for a long time to come! I seriously question the motivation behind most of this crap.

1:50 60 year olds die walking through a grocery store?

How do you know it doesn’t thrive in warm climates? You are not making informed decisions.

 

[MigraineMan]

Frederick Wegmans- just about wiped out of paper products. I did get some canned tuna, no canned chicken. No ground beef or fresh chicken breasts which sucks.

H-Mart meat counters are stocked ... at least the one in Gaithersburg (behind FSK Mall) was. Not surprising, as the hyper-panicked soccer-moms don't shop there.

Bought a 20-lb bag of jasmine rice (mostly because it had a nifty carry-handle.) They had forklift pallets of rice just inside the door. The dry bean aisle was fully stocked, too, and 4-lb bags of small red beans were on sale for six-and-a-half bucks each.

 

[HokieKev]

Wheaton Costco

Crazy lines. I guess because they are limiting the number of people in the store at once.

https://www.facebook.com/wjlatv/videos/495514261337872/?v=495514261337872

 

[MykR0k]

1:50 60 year olds die walking through a grocery store?

How do you know it doesn’t thrive in warm climates? You are not making informed decisions.

Come on, the reference was in relation to older folks catching COVID-19 being greater walking through a grocery store than catching it from kids coming back from spring break.

Going by history and how viruses have responded in the past, warm weather plays a big roll. That's a big reason why flu season begins in the fall and goes through winter. Are you stating that's not the case because you might want to take that up with the CDC.

Do I know definitely, no. My decisions are based on history and how viruses have impacted us in the past and still do today. My decisions are based on CDC information that shows the common flu infects and kills far more than COVID-19. Why aren't we rolling out the National Guard every year during flu season and locking down entire states?

Let me ask you a question. How do you or anyone else know COVID-19 is going to be the next pandemic if we don't take drastic measures? Please explain the data that warrants your decisions. I'm sincerely listening and will evaluate. Don't worry, I can figure out the details and will publicly admit if your data shows the need for this hysteria.

This isn't pointed specifically to you but I sure hope anyone claiming the sky is falling today will stand tall and take responsibility for the harm they contributed to down the road. History has shown overwhelmingly that COVID-19 will likely be just another virus in a long, endless list of viruses.

In the meantime, I'll await your information.

 

[Mightydog]

H-Mart meat counters are stocked ... at least the one in Gaithersburg (behind FSK Mall) was. Not surprising, as the hyper-panicked soccer-moms don't shop there.

Bought a 20-lb bag of jasmine rice (mostly because it had a nifty carry-handle.) They had forklift pallets of rice just inside the door. The dry bean aisle was fully stocked, too, and 4-lb bags of small red beans were on sale for six-and-a-half bucks each.

Have you checked the one on 40 where the old Giant use to be? Can use some more jasmine rice. Pricey?

 

[ToolAA]

Have you checked the one on 40 where the old Giant use to be? Can use some more jasmine rice. Pricey?

I think it used to be a Shoppers before H-Mart

They also had Bat on sale

 

[Blacksmith101]

This should be interesting!

 

[Alan3413]

If I die of Coronavirus, it’s because I just saw my cousin at Wegmans who is a nurse and she gave me a big hug. I almost died right there, not sure what she was thinking. It happened so fast I couldn’t stop it.

Is she hot?

 

[teratos]

Come on, the reference was in relation to older folks catching COVID-19 being greater walking through a grocery store than catching it from kids coming back from spring break.

Going by history and how viruses have responded in the past, warm weather plays a big roll. That's a big reason why flu season begins in the fall and goes through winter. Are you stating that's not the case because you might want to take that up with the CDC.

Do I know definitely, no. My decisions are based on history and how viruses have impacted us in the past and still do today. My decisions are based on CDC information that shows the common flu infects and kills far more than COVID-19. Why aren't we rolling out the National Guard every year during flu season and locking down entire states?

Let me ask you a question. How do you or anyone else know COVID-19 is going to be the next pandemic if we don't take drastic measures? Please explain the data that warrants your decisions. I'm sincerely listening and will evaluate. Don't worry, I can figure out the details and will publicly admit if your data shows the need for this hysteria.

This isn't pointed specifically to you but I sure hope anyone claiming the sky is falling today will stand tall and take responsibility for the harm they contributed to down the road. History has shown overwhelmingly that COVID-19 will likely be just another virus in a long, endless list of viruses.

In the meantime, I'll await your information.

I don’t claim the sky is falling. I don’t know exactly what’s going to happen. Frankly, if this is done correctly, people will be complaining that “too much was done”. I’m fine with that.

I will tell you that I am very motivated by the idea that I may be put in a position to actively deny care to someone or decide who gets a ventilator and who doesn’t. That is a very realistic fear for me. It won’t be you doing that soul crushing task. You’ll still be bitching on the internet.

Your ignorance is glaring when you talk about Covid-19 and compare it to influenza. FWIW.....Covid-19 IS A FVUCKING PANDEMIC.

 

[CrazySanMan]

If I die of Coronavirus, it’s because I just saw my cousin at Wegmans who is a nurse and she gave me a big hug. I almost died right there, not sure what she was thinking. It happened so fast I couldn’t stop it.

Dibs on you TP!

Dibs on your cousin!

 

[MigraineMan]

Have you checked the one on 40 where the old Giant use to be? Can use some more jasmine rice. Pricey?

Haven't checked other H-Marts, though I can confirm that they tend to have pallets of rice and that soccer-moms don't shop there.

Checked my receipt - this 20lb bag of rice was $19.99. Gaithersburg had plenty of 10lb, 20lb, 40lb and 50lb bags.

 

[lazarus]

That’s 1.43% fatality rate. Wait until all those “spring break” punks bring it all back home. Should be quarantining the beaches!

You divide deaths by (deaths+recovered). It total cases.

It’s 65%. Currently.

Neither is really active as one represents best case assuming everyone sick recovers and the other represents and possible worst case. Likely lays somewhere in between.

China stands at just over 4% death rate with most of the people recovered.

It’ll likely be worse in the US though. Likely Italy in another 2-3 weeks our health care system will be incredibly overwhelmed. Based on the average rate of critical care cases, likely around 8% dead in the end.

81% mild to moderate disease course. 19% severe. Of the severe, slightly less than half require ICU care. It’s about 8%. Roughly 1/3-1/2 of those ICU cases will die.

If ICU level care is not available, most critical cases and some of the severe cases will die.

The US has 75,000 ICU beds for 360 million people.

Severe cases take the longest to recover. 3-6 weeks and sometimes longer.

Assuming patients were easily divided over the entire United States, capacity would be overwhelmed at approximately a million sick. Except they won’t be evenly distributed. They’ll be more clustered.

On top of that other people need ICI beds for other things. The US hospital system is operated at about 90% capacity at any given time.

IE 7,500 beds. That’s a little less than 100,000 sick. Across the entire US. And they’ll tie up the beds for probably around a month.

I think most people can see the trajectory. Won’t be more than a couple weeks and everything will be overwhelmed and then we are going to stay there for months.

Estimate is 60-70% of everyone gets it eventually. Probably in waves, but it’s going to be in the millions even with extreme clamping down. That later scenario estimates we might saved a couple to a few hundred thousand lives. But we are still going to lose well over a million and it might be several million.

PS if the 60% is accurate, even WHO’s estimate of 3.4% dead (China blew past that. Italy is looking at more like 9%, and that is dead divided by TOTAL cases. That is assuming everyone sick gets better) that’s ten million dead in the US.

 

[Sirex]

I have a greater risk of dying when/if my wife finds out how many guns I have bought. Just saying, weighing the risks.

 

[lazarus]

Come on, the reference was in relation to older folks catching COVID-19 being greater walking through a grocery store than catching it from kids coming back from spring break.

Going by history and how viruses have responded in the past, warm weather plays a big roll. That's a big reason why flu season begins in the fall and goes through winter. Are you stating that's not the case because you might want to take that up with the CDC.

Do I know definitely, no. My decisions are based on history and how viruses have impacted us in the past and still do today. My decisions are based on CDC information that shows the common flu infects and kills far more than COVID-19. Why aren't we rolling out the National Guard every year during flu season and locking down entire states?

Let me ask you a question. How do you or anyone else know COVID-19 is going to be the next pandemic if we don't take drastic measures? Please explain the data that warrants your decisions. I'm sincerely listening and will evaluate. Don't worry, I can figure out the details and will publicly admit if your data shows the need for this hysteria.

This isn't pointed specifically to you but I sure hope anyone claiming the sky is falling today will stand tall and take responsibility for the harm they contributed to down the road. History has shown overwhelmingly that COVID-19 will likely be just another virus in a long, endless list of viruses.

In the meantime, I'll await your information.

I don’t think you understand math.

The flu in average kills less than .1% of the people it infects and hospitalizes about 1%.

COVID-19 hospitalizes 19%. So 19x more likely to end up in a hospital. It kills about 3.4% on the lower end up to about 10% when proper medical treatment can’t be received. So more than 100x more fatal than the flu. It has an R0 or around 2.5. Flu is 1.3. That means it is about twice as infectious as the flu.

Twice as infectious, around 40+x more deadly.

In 3-4 weeks we’ll have more dead in the US than the flu this year. In 2 months we will have 10-20x as many dead as the flu.

I can offer you suggestions on geometric/exponential curves if you’d like as well as epidemiology.

But CDC, Imperial college researchers, WHO, American Hospital Association are estimating from a low end of 500k dead in the US to about 2 million and those are ALL assuming we take drastic measures. And that’s only at 1 year. If we don’t come up with a vaccine or a treatment for 2 or more years, the numbers will be much higher.

Do nothing scenario is way. Way. Worse.