Will SB281 be repealled?

[ShafTed]

The smart thing for Hogan to do is to add self defense as G&S the week AFTER sine die when the Dems can't do anything about it until the 2016 session, when there will be no blood in the streets for them to pervert to their evil purposes.

 

[MrNiceGuy]

The smart thing for Hogan to do is to add self defense as G&S the week AFTER sine die when the Dems can't do anything about it until the 2016 session, when there will be no blood in the streets for them to pervert to their evil purposes.

The best time to do that is right in the middle of a series of high profile, extremely popular moves that tie up the news cycle bandwidth to the point that the G&S change and the absurd backlash from Bloomberg and his flying monkeys doesn't ever make it above the fold. Do it then and the middle-of-the-road folks who carried Hogan into office either won't notice at all or will shrug when they see it. The GA and the AG can't then challenge him on those changes without risking a then-popular governor using that popularity to beat them and their political allies into the ground. It also makes them look petty and partisan (not that they aren't), which further damages their brand.

Keep the popular changes big and the stuff for us under the radar unless and until the GA changes enough to plow through serious change. I want three things from Hogan during his first term for Maryland 2nd Amendment rights: G&S defined in such a way that we effectively become shall-issue, well defined (and wide open) vehicle transport rules so we don't have to sit here and argue about whether you're actually allowed to stop for gas after going to the range without risking prison time, and a veto against any new restrictions. That's enough at the start to keep me interested and working to help him get into a position to make more happen (at least as much as a governor in Maryland can make happen). We have to recognize the political realities that if he focuses too much time, energy, and capital on massive gun rights changes, he'll quickly become ineffective and irrelevant and any changes he can actually make will be immediately reversed when he's tossed out of office. Let's be realistic, but persistent.

 

[Bald Fat Guy]

The idea proposed by Shafted (and others ) would be a good default plan.

Yeah , if Nice Giy's scenario happens to come into play first , have that on the back burner. But the weakness of Nice Guy's plan is that leaves you in the Erlich death sprial. You wait to be on a high profile roll of popularity , with a wave of sucuesses to build on before doing (whatever) , and the prerequsite popularity comes, and 90% of your agenda never gets out of the starting gate.


From the get go , Hogan will be facing a $400 Million shortfall , and a need to balance the budget. If he raised taxes , he would imeadately alienate his own base that just elected him. When he cuts $400 Million , every one of those dollars will have somebody directly or philosophicly with a stake , who will then become ticked at him.

 

[Bald Fat Guy]

Ah , edit won't work for me.

That was supposed to be " and the prerequisite roll of popularity DOESN't come ...."

 

[MrNiceGuy]

The idea proposed by Shafted (and others ) would be a good default plan.

Yeah , if Nice Giy's scenario happens to come into play first , have that on the back burner. But the weakness of Nice Guy's plan is that leaves you in the Erlich death sprial. You wait to be on a high profile roll of popularity , with a wave of sucuesses to build on before doing (whatever) , and the prerequsite popularity comes, and 90% of your agenda never gets out of the starting gate.


From the get go , Hogan will be facing a $400 Million shortfall , and a need to balance the budget. If he raised taxes , he would imeadately alienate his own base that just elected him. When he cuts $400 Million , every one of those dollars will have somebody directly or philosophicly with a stake , who will then become ticked at him.

Chris Christie faced many of the same challenges when he first entered office, yet in deep blue New Jersey, Christie found some things that worked for him. One of those things was to take the education unions head-on, out in the open, and basically go to war with them to get done what Christie felt was best for the state. The unions figured they'd roll over the new guy in the wrong party in the wrong state and Christie flattened them. He's done a lot of other things to keep himself is pretty good graces overall with a very difficult electorate in a very difficult state.

Hogan needs to lean on Christie where possible and study Christie's history from New Jersey very carefully. The fact is that you can succeed as a Republican governor in a very blue state so long as you're smart in where and what you choose to focus your energies on. You don't have to wait for everyone to love you; you have to get a few popular things going at once so the rapidly moving news cycle is dominated by those stories when you make the small but important changes which might not otherwise go over as well.

At the end of the day, however it's done - if it's done - either Hogan makes progress on restoring our rights or he doesn't. If he doesn't, he won't see another vote from me. I have what I see as moderate, reasonable, achievable expectations from Hogan. It's up to him to decide how to deliver them, but I think it'd be foolish for him to ignore us as Ehrlich did.

 

[Bald Fat Guy]

Well if Chris Christie is a role model ....

 

[ericoak]

Sadly we are not in Alabama.

 

[teratos]

The smart thing for Hogan to do is to add self defense as G&S the week AFTER sine die when the Dems can't do anything about it until the 2016 session, when there will be no blood in the streets for them to pervert to their evil purposes.

It's not that simple. Frosh would ask for and get an immediate injunction then the court case would be dragged out for years.

Not smart.

 

[Mark75H]

It's not that simple. Frosh would ask for and get an immediate injunction then the court case would be dragged out for years.

Not smart.

I don't know if the AG would have any standing. The way I read COMAR ... and the way I understand the current court case is the problem with current law is ... MSP (and their boss) does have such disgression - and it may change at the whim of the boss


What Hogan could do, but I doubt he will, is instruct the new MSP Commander to lighten up, just a little. (Which is what I think happened from the time the law was written in the opposite direction. I think originally they didn't realize they could put restrictions, when they figured it out, they started heaping them on.)

We lost by increments, we can take back by increments. Start with blanket renewals of existing CCW, not by going whole hog.

An incremental approach would hardly be noticed by the antis. Blanket renewals could look like CYA to prevent another Woollard

A baby step every 6 or 8 months and in 8 years the scenery is completely different

 

[teratos]

I don't know if the AG would have any standing. The way I read COMAR ... and the way I understand the current court case is the problem with current law is ... MSP (and their boss) does have such disgression - and it may change at the whim of the boss


What Hogan could do, but I doubt he will, is instruct the new MSP Commander to lighten up, just a little. (Which is what I think happened from the time the law was written in the opposite direction. I think originally they didn't realize they could put restrictions, when they figured it out, they started heaping them on.)

We lost by increments, we can take back by increments. Start with blanket renewals of existing CCW, not by going whole hog.

An incremental approach would hardly be noticed by the antis. Blanket renewals could look like CYA to prevent another Woollard

A baby step every 6 or 8 months and in 8 years the scenery is completely different

QFT

 

[Boondock Saint]

It's not that simple. Frosh would ask for and get an immediate injunction then the court case would be dragged out for years.

Not smart.

If that's true, it's pretty well disheartening. The law (G&S) is purposefully vague and EOs are designed to help clear up some ambiguity in these situations.

What a crock.

 

[teratos]

If that's true, it's pretty well disheartening. The law (G&S) is purposefully vague and EOs are designed to help clear up some ambiguity in these situations.

What a crock.

I don't think there is any question those ambiguities can be exploited and clarified in a better way than O'Malley did.

 

[moojersey]

I don't think 2A is at the top of Mr. Hogan's list. The G&S thing may eventually come to pass, but if I were in Hogan's shoes I'd be very hesitant to rock the boat right off the bat. His campaign was squarely aimed at the stuggling MD economy and ridiculous tax burden. I would expect his first and best energies to begin tackling these issues. I also believe he will follow through on his promise of a full audit of all branches of MD government. Honestly I am happy with that. Yes I am secretly also chomping at the bit to exercise my 2A right in my state of residence. But I don't think it is in his best interest at this point, so early in his new position. He has to show that he can make progress in other areas first before he decides to make a change like that. It would only be used to smear the hell out of him.

 

[miben]

I guess he could direct state departments to stop wasting the state's money fighting lawsuites that are filed to uphold the second amendment.

 

[40-Cal-Polymer]

Any alterations or changes to gun laws, rights on interpretations, is going to take time, and I don't mean a few months or a year, time, But possibly 2-3 years down the road. Hogans victory is a small win for Marylanders. For the most part, his stance on 2A was kinda on the hush. He did not campaign on gun rights. A lot of Dem voted for him, due to his stance on taxes and the economy. Honestly? I don't expect a whole lot to come from this victory, not yet atleast, expecially since Frosh is AG and the dems still control both houses. I really hope that people aren't expecting shit to just go away in 6 months and everyone just going to be able to obtain this permit or that weapon, because if that's the case, then I'm afirad you're going to be very dissappointed. This is a a war, we have won this battle, but the war still rages on. We must now ramp up our effort's and our tactic's and push even harder then before. The momentum can not be allowed to wean.

 

[ezracer]

I agree with 'moojersey' that 2A is not on Hogan's radar at this time. Hogan has
many other issues more pressing that he needs to address. I would hope that sometime in the future that Hogan could at least do something with the G&S portion of the law.

Unfortunately, Frosh was elected also!!

 

[Brooklyn]

It's not that simple. Frosh would ask for and get an immediate injunction then the court case would be dragged out for years.

Not smart.

While there is a better way.. an ag willing to take thus to court in direct oposition to a siting Gov does increase the odd of getting cert.

ESP if the interpretation favored by the Gov is lock step with the most recent court decisions...

Frosh may be dumb enough to do us that favor..

Its not all bad if that happens..

 

[alex1128762000]

Nothing. I bet we relax concealed carry.

I would agree forget SB281 and make MD shall issue. If he can.

 

[rem87062597]

...well defined (and wide open) vehicle transport rules so we don't have to sit here and argue about whether you're actually allowed to stop for gas after going to the range without risking prison time

Question - This sounds like the sort of thing that the AG would issue an opinion on, or am I wrong? Unless this is just a straight COMAR thing.

 

[rambling_one]

[Extract from Wikipedia] "The AG...is the legal advisor and representative of the Governor, General Assembly, Judiciary, and major departments, various boards, commissions, officials and institutions of State Government.

"The Office further represents the State in all cases pending in the Appellate Courts of the State, and in the United States Supreme Court and lower Federal Courts."

Quite a few balls for Frosh to juggle.