How much 22LR do you HAVE?

[BigDaddy]

I couldn't care less how much ammo you have.

I did the poll based on some questions that came up in this thread - http://www.mdshooters.com/showthread.php?t=154738

And anyway, this is not a public poll. so no one can see what your answer is, so no one, except you, will still not know how much YOU have.

I didn't know how to post a poll, so being the OP on the above thread, I'm glad you did.

How much you have and how much you "need" are different questions. If the polls are to be believed, people have less than they need. Given the shortage, that is a logical conclusion.

In both threads people who shoot a brick a session spoke out, and they need thousands of rounds of rounds a year. Add all of us who would like 1 or 2 thousand more because we fear the next shortage and you are talking about demand that easily out strips manufacturing capability. There are 4.5 million NRA members. That's a fraction of gun owners.

For every 2.5 million of us that need 1,000 more rounds, it means 2.5 billion more rounds need to be manufactured.

What's magic about 2.5 billion?
Because that's all they make.

So if we need 2,000 rounds, that's 2 years production.
I there are really 25 million of us, needing 1000, that is 10 years production

 

[Oldcarjunkie]

LOL. Looks like you and I were saying the same thing, but you said it better.

Got mine from cmp for like 250 shipped for 5K... those were the days

 

[jm86wvu]

As someone who is just getting back into shooting I can say it really sucks to not be able to walk into a store and buy a brick of .22 like I used to as a kid. That being said, I have no hard feelings whatsoever to the people that buy it and buy lots of it whenever they can find it. I'd do the same thing if I had the means and time to track it down.

 

[fidelity]

As someone who is just getting back into shooting I can say it really sucks to not be able to walk into a store and buy a brick of .22 like I used to as a kid. That being said, I have no hard feelings whatsoever to the people that buy it and buy lots of it whenever they can find it. I'd do the same thing if I had the means and time to track it down.

PSA has S&B high velocity 22LR for less than $0.10/round ...

http://palmettostatearmory.com/inde...lot-22lr-38gr-hp-hi-velocity-500rd-brick.html

No limit on boxes but their shipping price might have recently increased.

 

[Parshooter]

I didn't know how to post a poll, so being the OP on the above thread, I'm glad you did.

How much you have and how much you "need" are different questions. If the polls are to be believed, people have less than they need. Given the shortage, that is a logical conclusion.

In both threads people who shoot a brick a session spoke out, and they need thousands of rounds of rounds a year. Add all of us who would like 1 or 2 thousand more because we fear the next shortage and you are talking about demand that easily out strips manufacturing capability. There are 4.5 million NRA members. That's a fraction of gun owners.

For every 2.5 million of us that need 1,000 more rounds, it means 2.5 billion more rounds need to be manufactured.

What's magic about 2.5 billion?
Because that's all they make.

So if we need 2,000 rounds, that's 2 years production.
I there are really 25 million of us, needing 1000, that is 10 years production

That is SO-O-O-O depressing

 

[Boom Boom]

For every 2.5 million of us that need 1,000 more rounds, it means 2.5 billion more rounds need to be manufactured.

What's magic about 2.5 billion?
Because that's all they make.

So if we need 2,000 rounds, that's 2 years production.
I there are really 25 million of us, needing 1000, that is 10 years production

That illustrates perfectly why ammo manufacturers have a strong disincentive to bring more 22LR production capacity online. Doing so would more quickly satisfy demand and drive prices back down, creating a double whammy from the manufacturer's perspective (less unit profit; slower return or possible loss on capital investment). Collectively, 22LR manufacturers love the current status quo and none are willing to rock the boat.

 

[ericoak]

For every 2.5 million of us that need 1,000 more rounds, it means 2.5 billion more rounds need to be manufactured.

What's magic about 2.5 billion?
Because that's all they make.

Where did you get those numbers, specifically 2.5 billion?

 

[Doctor_M]

Thunderbolts don't count, correct?? :-)

 

[Pinecone]

Where did you get those numbers, specifically 2.5 billion?

2.5 million shooters, each wanting to buy 1000 rounds, means 2.5 billion rounds needed to satisfy.

In reality, probably a lot more shooters, and many of them want to buy more than 1000 rounds.

BTW, my Dad grew up in rural NC through the Depression. He would go to the hardware store and buy 3 - 5 ROUNDS (not boxes) of .22 to go hunt with.

The prices were 2 for 1 cent for 22 shorts, and 1 cent each for 22 LR.

 

[ericoak]

What's magic about 2.5 billion?
Because that's all they make.

Where did you get those numbers, specifically 2.5 billion?

2.5 million shooters, each wanting to buy 1000 rounds, means 2.5 billion rounds needed to satisfy.

In reality, probably a lot more shooters, and many of them want to buy more than 1000 rounds.

BTW, my Dad grew up in rural NC through the Depression. He would go to the hardware store and buy 3 - 5 ROUNDS (not boxes) of .22 to go hunt with.

The prices were 2 for 1 cent for 22 shorts, and 1 cent each for 22 LR.

I am talking about the amount they make.

 

[tsmith1499]

When/if I find it for $.10/rd or less shipped, I usually buy some. Most places will only allow you to buy 1 of whatever it is that's there.

I got into competitive shooting last year. So I go through a lot more .22 than I ever have before.

 

[Pinecone]

I am talking about the amount they make.

The only number I know of comes with the video of CCI rimfire production. They state tehy make about 4 million rounds per day.

CCI is ATK (Federal) but not sure if Federal has a separate rimfire facility. Also have the other producers.

 

[Mr H]

IMO.....

The number is irrelevant, for purposes of discussion.

The reality is, that there is an [partly] artificial demand, which currently exceeds production capacity.

 

[photoracer]

Ten percent of nothin' is ... let me do the math here ... nothin' into nothin' ... carry the nothin' ...

I am trending below 1000 at this point after taking the boy to AGC yesterday.

Once he found out how the sights worked, and the orange dot started getting lots of holes in it, the ammo flowed a bit quicker.

4000 round order from Midway is still pending, and has NOT been cancelled yet. It will be 8 months in July......

I would not count on it just because Midway is seeming to. They have little control over what they get these days. PSA seems to get more than Midway. At least PSA has 325 rd boxes of Federal AutoMatch for $33.99 most days. Plus some Euro HV for $4.69/50.

 

[ericoak]

The only number I know of comes with the video of CCI rimfire production. They state tehy make about 4 million rounds per day.

CCI is ATK (Federal) but not sure if Federal has a separate rimfire facility. Also have the other producers.

Well that is about 1.5 billion from Federal alone. Plenty of other companies also make .22LR. Which confirms that the 2.5 billion number was probably made up.

 

[StanW]

That illustrates perfectly why ammo manufacturers have a strong disincentive to bring more 22LR production capacity online. Doing so would more quickly satisfy demand and drive prices back down, creating a double whammy from the manufacturer's perspective (less unit profit; slower return or possible loss on capital investment). Collectively, 22LR manufacturers love the current status quo and none are willing to rock the boat.

It's not the manufacturer jacking up pricing, it's the retailers. I picked up 550 pack of Goldens from Gander for $25, Cabela's has somewhat normal pricing when in stock. Makes you wonder about Cheaper than Dirt selling for a brick for 100+. Adding additional manufacturing is very expensive and would likely be completed just about the time the shortage ended.

 

[woodstock]

you want to know what? i have 22 .22lr bullets and a clip that holds 7.

 

[Mr H]

Well that is about 1.5 billion from Federal alone. Plenty of other companies also make .22LR. Which confirms that the 2.5 billion number was probably made up.

IMO, the number is pretty much irrelevant, but the logistics and premise are pretty spot on.

 

[AlpineDude67]

One of the problems is that this shortage has increased everybody's sense of how much is "enough" to have on-hand. I'm not talking about preppers putting back stuff for some catastrophe - I just mean how much your average shooter would like to have on hand so that they know they can shoot .22 pretty much whenever they want without worrying about it. Personally - I'm thinking that amount is about how much I would normally shoot in 18-24 months. That is a lot of .22.

It does seem to be coming back to some degree - it is no longer impossible to find. When it is generally available, even if it is a bit more expensive, that will do a lot to stop the panic buying and flipping. But it may be a while longer before the price drops - just because there are a lot of people (like me) out there looking to stock up.

 

[C&RTactical]

Too little given how much I want to shoot.