Preparing For Spreading Coronavirus

[Soda]

I'm not really worried about the virus itself. I'm more concerned about having enough supplies should we be told to stay home for 2 (or more) weeks like what is now happening in cities in South Korea, Italy, and Japan. Those aren't exactly 3rd world countries. If everyone stays home then there won't be many stores getting regular shipments of goods to restock.

 

[Alphabrew]

You planning on stealing them?

Well, I wasn’t...but now you got me thinking

 

[Alea Jacta Est]

I'm not really worried about the virus itself. I'm more concerned about having enough supplies should we be told to stay home for 2 (or more) weeks like what is now happening in cities in South Korea, Italy, and Japan. Those aren't exactly 3rd world countries. If everyone stays home then there won't be many stores getting regular shipments of goods to restock.

2 days. 2 weeks. 2 months. 2 years. ????

Two weeks ought to be (bare minimum for) ops normal. Imo.

 

[CrazySanMan]

The Deep State is very deep...

Trump To Hold News Conference At 6pmET To Dispel Media's "Fake News, Panicking" Over Virus Outbreak
https://www.zerohedge.com/political/trump-hold-news-conference-6pmet-dispel-medias-fake-news-panicking-over-virus-outbreak

Dr. Nancy Messonnier, the CDC Director of the Center for the National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases, warned ominously that:

"As more and more countries experience community spread, successful containment at our borders becomes harder and harder. It’s not a question of if this will happen but when this will happen and how many people in this country will have severe illnesses.

...Disruption to everyday life might be severe...

...We are asking the American public to prepare for the expectation that this might be bad."

In addition, Messonnier warned that it may soon become necessary for schools and businesses to greatly restrict person to person contact...

The CDC outlined what schools and businesses will likely need to do if the COVID-19 virus becomes an epidemic outbreak in the U.S. Schools should consider dividing students into smaller groups or close and use “internet-based tele-schooling,” Dr. Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases, told reporters on a conference call.

“For adults, businesses can replace in-person meetings with video or telephone conferences and increase teleworking options,” Messonnier said.

Can you ever recall a top CDC official ever making statements this ominous?

Well, it turns out Dr. Nancy Messonnier is the sister of the former Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein who appointed Special Counsel Robert Mueller.

Could she be part of the resistance?

Remember, it was reported that CDC employees cried when Trump was elected.

 

[Brychan]

Do you have a rough idea of what temperature it can survive down to? It was 6 degrees when I got up this morning, is that cold enough to kill it on any outside surfaces or say from someone sneezing outside?

Not sure, I know virus lab samples are prepared for storage at around -80° C. Don't know about in the wild temperature tolerances.

 

[fidelity]

Do you have a rough idea of what temperature it can survive down to? It was 6 degrees when I got up this morning, is that cold enough to kill it on any outside surfaces or say from someone sneezing outside?

Not sure, I know virus lab samples are prepared for storage at around -80° C. Don't know about in the wild temperature tolerances.

Yes, they stay infectious longer at colder temps.

Moreover, one of the factors thought to potentiate spread of flu or cold viruses in colder weather is the lack of humidity. Thus airborne virus or virus in respiratory droplets after a sneeze in your vicinity might be transmitting better.

 

[Stevie Boy]

I'm pretty sure you get a larger bottle (90 day) if you switch to prescriptions by mail. The insurance copmpany limits the local pharmacy to a 30 day supply to encourage you to switch to mail delivery.

This may be insurance specific. I have no issue with getting 90 day supply at my local pharmacy with my insurance carrier. We have Blue Cross/Blue Shield with CVS Caremark as out Rx administrator.

As an aside, we do have a mail order option available but I discovered about a year ago that it was WAY cheaper to have my precriptions filled locally. We had been trained over the years that mail order and it's standard $15 fee was cheaper. Turned out not to be the case (for us).

 

[Boxcab]

Can I assume that UV light works well to kill this bug?

Something like this?

https://www.amazon.com/GLW-Waterpro...uPWNsaWNrUmVkaXJlY3QmZG9Ob3RMb2dDbGljaz10cnVl




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[fidelity]

Can I assume that UV light works well to kill this bug?

Something like this?

https://www.amazon.com/GLW-Waterpro...uPWNsaWNrUmVkaXJlY3QmZG9Ob3RMb2dDbGljaz10cnVl


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I'm not familiar with the product, but if it's safe enough for people to be under for greater than 5 minute periods and not be a skin cancer risk, then I would assume that it doesn't have the energy to UV crosslink proteins in the virus and/or damage the viral genome (and is likely an underpowered long wave UV device ... short wave is better for crosslinking and damaging).

There are UV bulbs in light ceiling panels in some health care settings where they see flu or measles virus infected people that are used to kill viruses, but it's not something that I have any experience in sourcing out myself. Maybe one of the physicians with their own practice might know. Also have no idea if they zap the room when no one is in it, or the panels are not a risk to people a few feet under them and just meant to zap circulating, airborne viruses.

 

[chrisflhtc]

We are supposed to get some patients here at NIH today
Not happy that it is that close.

 

[CrazySanMan]

So in Iran there are 139 confirmed cases and 19 confirmed deaths. That's an 12% mortality rate if the 19 dead are not counted in the 139 infected, and a 13.7% rate if they are included in the 139...

 

[erwos]

The problem is that you don't know how many unconfirmed cases there are, and you're more likely to confirm the worst cases because they're the ones coming for help.

I was at Wheaton Costco yesterday and saw no evidence whatsoever of a run on food. I grabbed about a hundred pounds of rice and some canned fish of varying sorts. Between that and the usual pantry stock, that's enough to hold us through any extended strict quarantines. Might pick up more multi-vitamins just to avoid nutritional issues. I don't think water and electricity shortages are going to be serious problems. Say whatever else you will about the USG's preparedness for this, they understand that losing power and water would kill tons of people, and would probably staff those utilities with military personnel in a dire situation to keep them going... especially in/around DC. I just don't trust them to deal with food distribution adequately. If you can get a 90 day supply of meds, that is probably not a bad idea, either. A point I have been trying to gently make to people around me is that you will have no prep time when a quarantine is declared; you're going to be able to get home (hopefully!), and that's about it.

I think it's an open question how much emergency services will be running in a quarantine or actual outbreak situation. I would imagine fire services not being severely curtailed, but could imagine police services being somewhat more limited. Hospitals are always an open question, too. National Guard could potentially assist with some of this, I guess.

My internal planning assumption is that we will eventually see a 2-4 weeks strict quarantine when COVID-19 hits my area, which may be preceded by a week or two of the schools also being closed due to initial cases. It is really unclear to me that people understand just how likely lengthy school closures will be; any kind of case in a school is going to trigger that, and an outbreak originating in a place of worship or similar (think SK) could very easily cause entire school districts to close due to spread. Worst case would be 2-3 months, but I think you start running into government breakdown / civil disorder / economic collapse scenarios when you game out those sorts of timelines.

 

[CrazySanMan]

The problem is that you don't know how many unconfirmed cases there are, and you're more likely to confirm the worst cases because they're the ones coming for help.

But in Iran (and China and NoKo and elsewhere) you also don't know how many deaths there are either. The official number in Iran is 19 but some lawmakers are saying over 50. You have to assume the governments are lowballing the cases but are especially lowballing the deaths so they don't induce panic or make themselves look bad on the world stage. I assume the publicly acknowledged number of infected is low but the percentage of infections to deaths is especially low.

 

[Alea Jacta Est]

Numbers might as well be from a random number generator for all the confidence we might have in them.

Great case study for why truth is important.

 

[erwos]

But in Iran (and China and NoKo and elsewhere) you also don't know how many deaths there are either. The official number in Iran is 19 but some lawmakers are saying over 50. You have to assume the governments are lowballing the cases but are especially lowballing the deaths so they don't induce panic or make themselves look bad on the world stage. I assume the publicly acknowledged number of infected is low but the percentage of infections to deaths is especially low.

Low reliability numbers are not an indication of anything, high or low. I think the stuff coming out of Italy may be the first indication of just how bad it is, or is not.

 

[Squaregrouper]

Can I assume that UV light works well to kill this bug?

Something like this?

https://www.amazon.com/GLW-Waterpro...uPWNsaWNrUmVkaXJlY3QmZG9Ob3RMb2dDbGljaz10cnVl

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This would be useless. They advertise being in the 385-405nm, UV-A spectrum. This is essentially a blacklight to make things glow/fluoresce.
UV-C is what disrupts DNA and it peaks at 254nm (working best between ~225nm and 275nm)
Adding UV-C to your HVAC's supply ducts could be beneficial, but is very dependent on the fluence (UV "dose")

 

[Allen65]

Great case study for why truth is important.

Also a great case study for why patience is important. The epidemic is still very fluid, with the big picture being compiled with continuously updated information. And that information is coming from many, many different sources who likely are using different standards for, say, direct nCOVID-19 deaths vs deaths from secondary causes in patients who also happen to have nCOVID-19.

Mortality rates are all over the map because the vast majority of those infected have not had a final, measurable outcome, i.e. recovery or death. Transmission mechanisms are still not fully understood, so identifying cohorts for mortality calculations is nearly impossible, as is getting an accurate number for R-naught.

Even in the absence of intentionally doctored infection numbers, "truth" would be virtually impossible for any human being to possess at this stage of an epidemic, especially for a new disease. It's a "first reports from the battlefield" situation. The best that we can hope for is an improving state of knowledge over time.

We all need to be patient, take reasonable precautions, and not let the presence of multiple interpretations of the sparse facts available as a reason to blindly, permanently distrust everyone.

 

[CrazySanMan]

Italy is 400/12, or about 3%.

 

[bibitor]

I asked a close friend who works for John$ Hopkin$ Office of Critical Event Preparedness and Response. I was told forget about masks, but have a few weeks of commodities on hand at a minimum. Source is a no-nonsense, grounded individual with boot-on-the-ground experience studying infectious disease around the world.

 

[Boxcab]

This would be useless. They advertise being in the 385-405nm, UV-A spectrum. This is essentially a blacklight to make things glow/fluoresce.
UV-C is what disrupts DNA and it peaks at 254nm (working best between ~225nm and 275nm)
Adding UV-C to your HVAC's supply ducts could be beneficial, but is very dependent on the fluence (UV "dose")

Thanks. I figured something you could dance-away under all night long was probably ineffective... but needed to ask.




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